Crypto Research
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Broadening participation in the equity rally, falling yields, and a sliding VIX point to a risk-on backdrop that could lift Bitcoin and altcoins. In today’s video, we unpack Coinbase’s surge, muted but improving flows, and the key charts signaling potential for another leg higher. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC 0.35%
Geopolitical tensions eased Monday following an Israel–Iran ceasefire, sparking a sharp crypto rebound. At the same time, dovish signals from Fed Governors Waller and Bowman make a July rate cut increasingly plausible. With geopolitics receding, market focus shifts back to monetary and fiscal policy. We also unpack a commonly misunderstood seasonality dynamic. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC 0.35%
CORE STRATEGY Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Note: Our equities baskets are not risk-managed/rebalanced in the same way that our Core Strategy is. We will, under certain circumstances, remove names that are part of a tactical trade. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat GEOPOLITICS KEEPS THE CRYPTO MARKET ON ITS HEELS It is clear that crypto remains stuck in neutral, held back by uncertainty around the Israel–Iran conflict. As we noted last week, geopolitical flare-ups...
In today’s update, we unpack the Fed’s pivot from data dependence to selective forward guidance and consider what it means for markets. We then turn to crypto equities, where Circle’s post-IPO surge and USDC’s growing utility raise an important question: Who benefits more from stablecoin proliferation, Circle or Coinbase? Our view is that the valuation gap has grown too wide to ignore. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC 0.35% ...
Crypto slid as Iran headlines spooked the market, yet cross-asset signals hint at a rebound while Bitcoin rests on its 50-day. I cover why this drawdown may be a buying chance, spotlight Jito’s rare outperformance ahead of possible ETF inclusion, and break down the Senate’s landmark stablecoin vote. I also flag what to watch in tomorrow’s Fed decision and how it could steer the week. TICKERS IN...
In today’s update, we break down how rising tensions in the Middle East are affecting crypto markets, and where they are not. We revisit historical parallels, highlight the signals we're watching including gold, oil, and prediction markets, and explain why this setup could turn medium-term bullish. We also cover the latest moves in SBET and Circle, two equities tied to the crypto narrative, and discuss why now might be a...
CORE STRATEGY Source: Fundstrat Note: Our equities baskets are not risk-managed/rebalanced in the same way that our Core Strategy is. Source: Fundstrat CRYPTO AND GEOPOLITICAL RISK PREMIUM First and foremost, we acknowledge the human cost of these events and express deep sympathy for all those affected. That said, our role is to analyze crypto market implications, and we will continue to do so. Rising geopolitical conflicts are almost always initially...
In today’s update, we break down ETH’s breakout above its 200-day moving average, renewed momentum in DeFi tokens following supportive SEC commentary, and fresh signs of progress on Solana ETF approval. We also highlight macro drivers to watch, including tomorrow’s CPI print and evolving trade policy dynamics. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC 0.35%
Circle Should Benefit from Thematic Tailwinds, Despite its Questionable Margin Profile
QUICK MACRO THOUGHTSIt’s a confusing time for crypto investors. Equities seemed poised for fresh all-time highs while crypto is stuck in neutral and has lagged stocks for weeks.Corporates are still raising capital aggressively to accumulate liquid crypto.The majors sit at tough resistance: BTC faces heavy supply in the 105–110k zone, ETH is pinned under its 200-day, and SOL is dealing with the exogenous pressures discussed later on in this note.Stocks...