Stocks Surge Out of "November Chop"

Our Views

Tom Lee, CFA
Tom Lee, CFA
AC
Head of Research
  • The recent selloff from the October highs has caused some investors to start panicking. However, corrections like this are actually rather routine for 2025, with seven corrections of 3% or more for 2025 alone.
  • We view equity markets as currently oversold, with RSI levels comparable to those seen around the April lows. As some might recall, those April lows turned out to be a good time to buy, so I view this as a positive sign.  
  • Bottom line: We still expect stocks to rally into year-end, with a likelihood that the S&P 500 reaches 7,000-7,300 by the time 2025 turns into 2026. 
Read the Latest First Word
Mark L. Newton, CMT
Mark L. Newton, CMT
AC
Head of Technical Strategy
  • While rebuilding the prior breadth and momentum will take time, this week’s sharp rally is certainly helpful, as many different parts of the market participated in this move. 
  • The equity market seems to be growing more comfortable as the chances for a December rate cut have grown this past week. I still feel that a choppy market for now makes more sense into FOMC vs. a straight shot back to new highs given the bearish weekly momentum in U.S. indices.  
  • However, I remain open to all possibilities given the historically good seasonality trends during this time of year, coupled with lackluster sentiment. 
Read the Latest Daily Technical Strategy
Sean Farrell
Sean Farrell
AC
Head of Digital Asset Strategy, Fundstrat
  • The week saw heavy selling in MicroStrategy after MSCI removal headlines caused BTC to briefly diverge from equities. In our view, the impact of the removal is likely overstated. The passive outflows of $2.5-3 billion matter, but passive flows did not drive MSTR’s 2024 upside.
  • Media coverage appears to have turned aggressively negative, and historically this has been a decent counter-signal that bearish sentiment may be stretched.
  • In other news, Texas purchased $5 million of BTC via IBIT, a symbolically important step that could spur competitive adoption among other states.
Read the Latest Crypto Strategy

Wall Street Debrief — Weekly Roundup

Key Takeaways

  • The S&P 500 ended the week at 6,849.09, up 4.75%. The Nasdaq rose 5.83% to 23,365.69. Bitcoin was at USD $90,861.83 on Friday afternoon, up 4.69% from Monday levels.
  • Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee sees multiple reasons to expect a rally into the end of the year, despite the discomfort caused by the "November chop."
  • Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton saw encouraging breadth signals in this week's rally.

“Learn from yesterday, live for today, look to tomorrow, rest this afternoon.” ― Charles M. Schulz, Charlie Brown's Little Book of Wisdom

Good evening, 

We hope our U.S. readers had a happy Thanksgiving. Trading for the month of November has now concluded, and in our view, the story this month was one of resilience. As the month began, Fundstrat Head of Research Fundstrat Tom Lee and Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton each saw the potential for choppiness, and that potential was certainly realized. The S&P 500 was down two out of four weeks, and at one point, stocks were down as much as 6% from their October highs. 

Yet with the broad-based large-cap index surging 4.75% during this abbreviated trading week, we ended the month with stocks eking out a 0.39% gain.

November's volatility, which included a correction in the first part of the month, caused some discomfort. Retail investor sentiment, as measured by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), remains net bearish at negative 10.7%. Yet as Lee pointed out, such corrections have not been unusual this year – this is the seventh correction of at least 3% that markets have seen in 2025, as seen in our Chart of the Week below:

As seen in the chart, Lee does not view November's developments as disrupting his base case for December. Among the reasons for his constructive view are strong seasonality and the growing likelihood of another rate cut from the Federal Reserve in December, with odds (as implied by Fed funds futures trading) rising to 86.9%. Lee also sees momentum as on the side of the bulls, noting that in the past 100 years, there have been six times in which stocks have been up six months in a row in October. In those historical precedents, "November and December rallied five out of six times, with a median gain of 5%," he pointed out. 

Much of the pain in November had to do with the travails of technology. The tech sector (XLK 0.86% ) sank more than 4.72% this month, led by big tech – though the month's 2.92% decline of equal-weighted tech (RSPT 1.35% ) showed that it wasn't just the Magnificent Seven that struggled. 

Yet there is arguably a silver lining to be seen. For months now, Newton has repeated his concerns about deteriorating breadth, noting that gains by heavyweights like Nvidia were masking lackluster action in other sectors. With Nvidia stumbling despite beating expectations in its most recent earnings report this month (NVDA -1.94%  fell 12.76% in November), other parts of the market stepped up – especially this week. "This week’s sharp rally is certainly helpful, as many different parts of the market participated in this move," he told us.

Notably, Newton noted that market breadth "began to rebound [...] in sectors like consumer discretionary, industrials, and financials." With this in mind, Newton's technical work leads him to suggest that "some broad-based rallying could be likely into year-end," a view consistent with Lee's outlook.

Elsewhere

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange ran up against a 10-hour outage, disrupting trading in futures, commodities, and options. The outage was caused by a cooling-system malfunction at a data center in Chicago. On a light trading day, erratic movements in global trading of gold, crude, and palm oil were attributed to the outage. 

Charges against former FBI Director James Comey and New York Attorney General Leticia James were dismissed after a federal judge ruled that the lawyer who filed the charges, Lindsey Halligan, had been unlawfully appointed to her post as interim U.S. Prosecutor for Eastern Virginia. This, the court ruled, invalidated all actions that Halligan had taken while acting in that capacity. The dismissal without prejudice does not address the substance of the allegations made against Comey or James and leaves open the possibility of charges being refiled. In Comey's case, the statute of limitations has run out on the charges, which will almost certainly complicate any such efforts. Attorney General Pam Bondi has indicated intentions to appeal the court's ruling on Halligan's appointment, which was undertaken after experienced prosecutors refused to bring charges after concluding there was insufficient evidence to do so and thus, little chance of such a prosecution succeeding.

A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that AI has already made 11.7% of the U.S. workforce unnecessary, at least theoretically. The estimate was based on a simulation called "Project Iceberg" that maps 32,000 distinct skills across 923 occupations and assesses the ability of current AI to replicate those skills. 

Hong Kong is mourning after its deadliest fire in nearly eight decades, with the death toll at 128 and hundreds still unaccounted for. The blaze erupted on Wednesday, setting fire to bamboo scaffolding on the outside of an apartment high-rise, ultimately spreading to seven towers. Ten people have been arrested for various corruption and negligence allegations.

Get ready to pay up to see the Mona Lisa. The Louvre is planning to raise prices by 45% for visitors outside the European Economic Area, which includes America and even countries like Britain, Norway, and Liechtenstein. Those tourists will now be required to pay 32 euros from 22 euros. The funds will be used to overhaul the old infrastructure. 

The White House announced results of the second round of Medicare drug-price negotiations, with the makers of 15 additional widely used and costly medications agreeing to lower prices for Medicare beneficiaries. The negotiations, begun during the Biden administration as part of his Inflation Reduction Act, affect treatments for cancer, diabetes, and depression. The most recognizable drug on the list is Novo Nordisk's Rybelus, a diabetes treatment that is marketed as Ozempic when prescribed for weight loss. Government data suggests that when the prices take effect in 2027, it will save the Medicare program $12 billion annually. Lower prices for the first 10 drugs subject to Medicare negotiations will take place in January. 

And finally: Violet Fletcher, the oldest living survivor of the Tulsa Massacre of 1921, died on Monday, age 111. Fletcher was seven when what was then known as the "Black Wall Street" was destroyed in a sustained 16-hour act of racial violence that claimed dozens if not hundreds of lives. She later testified to Congress about what she saw that day. One remaining witness to the events of that day still lives – Tiffany Crutcher, six months younger than Fletcher. 

Important Events

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Nov. final   
Mon, Dec 1 9:45 AM ET
ISM Manufacturing PMI, November
Mon, Dec 1 10:00 AM ET

Est.: 49.0 Prev.: 48.7

U. Mich. 1yr Inflation Expectations, Dec. prelim
Fri, Dec 5 10:00 AM ET

Stock List Performance

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Upticks
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