Crypto Research
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Funding Rates Suggest an Unpopular BTC Rally, ETH Has More Room to Run (Core Strategy Rebalance)
CORE STRATEGY While the market has repriced quite substantially to reflect optimism over trade, we believe further upside could come from ensuing changes in tax and regulatory policy. In the House’s latest bill, more than $4 trillion in tax cuts have been proposed, with just $1.5 trillion in spending reductions. This implies continued fiscal expansion, which is stimulative and, all else equal, positive for crypto. Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CHANGES: INCREASING...
CORE STRATEGY Source: TradingView, Fundstrat While there is no need to “panic chase,” ETH likely begins trading better from here. We should start considering ETH beta names to add if Bessent’s meeting with China this weekend results in a positive outcome. The immediate-term risk/reward is certainly less attractive after BTC’s rally to $103,000 and strong follow-through from altcoins this week, but there are legitimate signs pointing to the U.S. reaching...
APRIL RECAP Monthly funding rose 31% from $840 million in March to $1.1 billion in April despite the deal count falling 25% from 106 to 80. April represented the highest monthly funding total going back to November 2022, helped by two nine-figure deals from Auradine and ZenMEV, representing about 27% of total funding. Infrastructure was the leading category, accumulating $639 million in funding across 41 deals, representing over half of...
In today’s update from the Medici conference, we share insights on allocator sentiment, the disconnect between capital flows and conviction, and a potential unlock for U.S. token projects through the revised FIT21 bill. We also highlight growing interest in zkTLS, renewed caution around altcoins, and the regulatory crosscurrents shaping crypto’s near-term trajectory. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC 1.46%
CORE STRATEGY Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat On Wednesday, we received a couple of material data points. The first was the first negative real GDP print since 2022. This spurred an immediate selloff across most assets (interestingly, bonds included) as fears of a tariff-induced recession entered the fold. However, the market’s reaction was brief. Around 10am, core PCE was released and came in line with forecasts. It showed some...