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Capitulation Signals Strengthen as Fed Shows Openness to Easing and SOL Gains a Potential Supply-Side Tailwind
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:RECORD IBIT AND HYPERLIQUID VOLUMES: A combination of (1) BTC’s sharp overnight drop and constructive rebound, (2) all-time-high IBIT volumes, and (3) record BTC-denominated volume on Hyperliquid collectively points to sellers being absorbed and a potential capitulatory backdrop forming.POLICY EASING SIGNALS: Fed President John Williams signaled openness to further rate cuts, and both Fed Funds Futures and Polymarket repriced December cut odds to >50%, helping ease recent concerns that...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:OVERSOLD INDICATORS ARE EXTREMELY STRETCHED: Bitcoin’s rolling 30-day return is in the 6th percentile since 2020, the 7-day return is in the 3rd percentile, and its deviation from the 50-day moving average has reached a z-score of roughly -2.8. These readings have only appeared during major stress events and historically tend to coincide with exhaustion in selloffs and the setup for multi-week bounces.ETF HOLDERS CAPITULATE: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have...
CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat I will discuss changes to both portfolios at the end of this note. WHY I TURNED TACTICALLY CAUTIOUS LAST WEEK Last week, I outlined several reasons for near-term caution in crypto and recommended raising some cash, tilting long exposure toward BTC, or seeking downside protection via options. Signals of deterioration were building, and the rationale for that stance is...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Hawkish Fed commentary and renewed concerns around private credit contributed to today’s crypto weakness.A clear positive was the absence of the forced or highly motivated seller that pressured the market last week.My bigger concern is the continued complacency and build-up of bullish leverage in BTC perps.NVDA earnings and the upcoming BLS jobs report could be meaningful catalysts later this week.Overall, while the risk-reward has improved sharply since...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:BTC dropped more than 4% while dominance also moved lower. That pairing is extremely rare and usually appears during periods of forced or highly motivated selling. Today's altcoin resilience (on a relative basis) supports the view that the pressure is concentrated in BTC.Funding remains positive, and the Coinbase discount persists.FOMC communication continues to lean hawkish. Soft job data and strong NVIDIA earnings next week could support a...
In today's video, I walk through the key points from yesterday's strategy note, including the near-term crypto market setup, the factors behind my shift toward a more risk-averse stance, and the indicators I am watching that could turn the outlook in a more positive direction. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC 1.33% ETH 1.29%
Reasons For Tactical Caution Despite a Constructive Macro Backdrop (Core Strategy Rebalance)
CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat I discuss the changes to both portfolios at the end of this note. A RECAP Before explaining my tactical shift, it is worth revisiting why I entered Q4 with a constructive stance on crypto and why I have maintained that view in recent weeks:POLICY FRAMEWORK: As I have discussed since the summer months, the administration’s current playbook aims to...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:SHUTDOWN RESOLUTION NEARING: The Senate advanced its funding bill, with a House vote expected midweek and Polymarket implying a resolution by Thursday. Ending the shutdown would remove a major drag on liquidity and growth, improving the backdrop for crypto.MUTED FOLLOW-THROUGH IN CRYPTO: Despite a strong Sunday rally and firm equity gains Monday, BTC 1.33% and ETH 1.29% showed limited upside and a persistent Coinbase discount, signaling weak U.S. spot participation. We’d...
Crypto Showing Signs of Seller Exhaustion as MSTR Returns to Market and Shutdown Resolution Likely Nears
CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat LIQUIDITY & GROWTH PRESSURES PERSIST The Treasury’s need to refill its reserves has led to roughly $700B in issuance over the past several months, with no corresponding fiscal outflows back into the economy. This has tightened bank reserves and liquidity conditions and likely reduced passive flows into equities, since a portion of those Treasury payments would have otherwise found...
OCTOBER RECAP October set another 2025 record in monthly funding, totaling $1.78 billion across 109 deals. The large total was fueled by the two largest deals of the year: a $500 million Series A round completed by Tempo, and a $300 million undisclosed round from Kalshi. Infrastructure was the leading category with $912 million in funding across 56 deals, representing approximately 50% of both funding and deal count. CeFi followed...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:MARKET DRIVERS: Weak labor data and renewed concerns around the AI CapEx cycle weighed on markets. Challenger job cuts rose to the highest level since the first quarter, with “artificial intelligence” cited as the second most common reason for layoffs. This underscores the tangible economic impact of automation and made it an odd session for AI equities to lead the market lower.ON-CHAIN DYNAMICS: Supply-adjusted coin days destroyed continues to...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Spot-led rebound: Today’s crypto rally was driven mainly by spot demand, not short covering. Open interest rose as funding rates declined, and a brief Coinbase premium indicated strong U.S. buying.Growth-positive data: ISM Services PMI came in at 52.4, easing growth concerns.Shutdown progress: Post-election tone in Congress suggests movement toward resolving the government shutdown, which would be liquidity positive as Treasury outflows resume and reserves rebuild.Tariff headline risk:...
