Crypto Research
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DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:PRIVATE CREDIT STRESS BROADENING: Apollo announced markdowns within one of its BDCs. Alternative asset manager equities, already in a downtrend since mid-August, saw renewed pressure, with Apollo down roughly 9% intraday.HIGH-YIELD SPREADS MOVING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION: High-yield spreads have widened to new YTD highs. While spreads remain tight on an absolute basis, the rate of change matters more than the level. Given crypto's historically meaningful sensitivity...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:OCC PROPOSAL INCREASES ODDS OF CLARITY ACT PASSAGE: The OCC released proposed rules to implement the GENIUS Act, taking a restrictive stance on stablecoin yield pass-through that aligns with the banking lobby and current Clarity Act language. While subject to a 60-day comment period, the proposal reduces regulatory uncertainty and likely increases the probability that the Clarity Act advances this year.CRYPTO DEMONSTRATES RELATIVE RESILIENCE AMID GEOPOLITICAL VOLATILITY:...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:STRONG UPSIDE SESSION. BTC rallied to just below $70,000, briefly tagging that level after the close. ETH/BTC and SOL/BTC each gained roughly 5%, with broad alt outperformance.INITIAL IMPULSE DRIVEN BY SHORT COVERING AND LIQUIDATIONS. The rally began around 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday alongside a sharp decline in Bitcoin open interest, with the price moving quickly from approximately $64,000 to $66,000. Funding rates were decisively negative heading...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:RISK-OFF TONE LED BY GROWTH EQUITIES. Crypto began selling off Sunday night, effectively front-running a broader risk-off move across equities. The decline coincided with renewed weakness in SaaS and other AI-exposed growth stocks, which accelerated lower as the AI disruption trade extended. Given crypto’s persistent correlation to higher-duration growth assets, it followed that weakness.MACRO CROSSCURRENTS REMAIN IN PLAY. The move is consistent with the macro pressures I...
PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat SUPREME COURT RULING’S IMPACT ON CRYPTO: MARGINALLY POSITIVE, NOT A GAMECHANGER WHAT HAPPENEDThe Supreme Court struck down the administration’s emergency tariffs, ruling that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose duties. The decision reaffirms that tariff authority rests with Congress under Article I and underscores that economically significant executive actions require clear congressional authorization.The Court did not address whether previously collected tariffs...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:BROADER POSITIONING REMAINS EXTENDED. The latest Bank of America Fund Manager Survey shows cash allocations near historic lows, the second-lowest reading on record, while investor sentiment is the most stretched since mid-2021. While crypto positioning tends to clear more quickly than traditional markets, a broad de-grossing across equities and credit would likely spill over.STRESS SIGNALS IN PRIVATE CREDIT ARE WORTH MONITORING. Blue Owl’s decision to continue gating...
Bitcoin’s Tech Correlation Strengthens as AI Repricing Deepens and Financial Conditions Tighten
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:SECTOR CORRELATIONS CONFIRM BITCOIN’S GROWTH SENSITIVITY – Bitcoin’s rolling 90-day correlation versus the 11 iShares U.S. sector ETFs from BlackRock shows Technology in a clear lead at just under 0.60, with Consumer Discretionary a distant second near 0.47. This reinforces that BTC remains tightly linked to cyclical, growth-oriented equity segments. The recent defensive rotation in equities is therefore a marginal headwind for crypto, though insufficient on its...
CPI-Driven Easing in Rate Expectations Sparks Crypto Rebound, mNAV Expansion Supportive of Near-Term Continuation
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:COOLER CPI REVERSED THE HAWKISH MOVE FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK. Headline CPI came in at 2.4% YoY, below expectations, while core was in line. The hawkish shift in rate expectations following earlier labor data was fully unwound, with December Fed Funds futures repricing toward ~3%. While most projected cuts remain beyond Powell’s tenure, today’s data meaningfully eased near-term pressure on duration-sensitive assets and provided a clean...
Hawkish Data Stymies Crypto’s Bounce Attempt, Uniswap’s BUIDL Integration a Long-Term Positive
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Jobs data surprised to the upside, pushing yields higher and pricing out near-term Fed cuts, which contributed to sideways risk asset performance and muted crypto follow-through.Yen strength is a marginal headwind for global liquidity, as carry unwinds can pressure risk assets, something to monitor but not yet a major concern.Bitcoin continues to trade more like a growth asset than digital gold, tracking equity style rotations and risk...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Last week’s selloff was statistically extreme and consistent with capitulation. BTC’s deviation from its 50-day moving average, MVRV’s dislocation versus its long-term trend, record spot ETF volumes, and a spike in implied volatility all support the view that last week marked at least a local low.Follow-through has been constructive but incomplete. ETF flows have turned modestly positive, and spot demand has improved at times, but options markets...
Skeptical That “The Lows” Are In, but Risk/Reward Has Improved, Deploying Some Dry Powder (Portfolio Rebalance)
IMPORTANT NOTICE: I will be out of the office through Friday and will publish selectively if warranted by market conditions. PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat _NOTE: SEE THE END OF THIS NOTE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE LATEST REBALANCE._ STOPS GET HUNTED The crypto selloff accelerated throughout the weekend, with BTC falling to ~$74k, ETH to ~$2,150, and SOL to ~$96. 24-hour liquidations across perpetual futures markets reached...