The Fog of Trade War (Core Strategy Rebalance)
Core Strategy
With the looming threat of an escalating trade war and economic data robust enough to discourage a more dovish Fed stance, we believe the upside risk for the DXY and yields has increased in Q1. Moreover, the market remains highly volatile and headline-driven, inhibiting the crypto market from gaining meaningful momentum. While regulatory developments are a key medium- to a long-term tailwind for crypto, it is unlikely that any incremental “good news” will be announced in the near term.
To be clear, we still anticipate that crypto will outperform this year. However, we believe it is prudent to manage downside risk in the near term (1-2 months) and consider raising cash/reducing altcoin exposure (plan for BTC dominance higher). We will discuss some of the things we will be looking for to turn more constructive in our note below.