BTC Tracking Historical Post-LNY Returns Well, FOMC Hurdle Cleared
Developments since the inauguration confirm that the new administration is prioritizing an industry-friendly regulatory environment. Coupled with an easing DXY/yields, a possible TGA spenddown, and favorable seasonality, we think it’s prudent to maintain a long bias.
Powell Makes Some Edits
When the FOMC statement was first released on Wednesday, it carried a distinctly hawkish tilt. The language reflected a more optimistic view on employment (noting that the unemployment rate had “stabilized”) and removed previous references to progress on inflation. This understandably rattled markets, sending the DXY and yields sharply higher.
However, Powell, who appeared steadier and more confident than he did in December, quickly reassured investors during the press conference. He was pressed early on about the major wording changes, but he downplayed their significance, explaining that they were merely an effort to clean up the language and should not be overinterpreted.
Markets reversed course almost immediately—yields fell, crypto bounced, and risk assets finished strong into the close.
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