Headline Risk, Relenting DXY, and Improving Flows Suggest More Upside for Crypto
Recent developments since the inauguration suggest that the new administration is prioritizing an industry-friendly regulatory environment. We believe there is still significant upside headline risk in the early days of Trump's term. Coupled with an easing DXY/yields, as well as substantial inflows into the crypto ecosystem, we think it’s prudent to maintain a long bias.
The Launch of TRUMP Coin
This past weekend will undoubtedly go down as one of the most extraordinary moments in crypto history. On Friday night, during his inaugural "crypto ball," President-elect Donald Trump shocked the world by launching his own memecoin, TRUMP. The announcement, made around 10 p.m. ET, took both crypto insiders and the broader public by surprise, creating widespread confusion among market participants.
Skepticism was immediate and understandable. The memecoin’s debut came via Trump’s TruthSocial and X accounts, raising doubts about its legitimacy.
Moreover, the token’s distribution fueled suspicion: it has a 10% float, with 10% made available for liquidity, and the remaining 90% was allocated to the team, set to unlock in tranches over three years. Unlike other successful memecoins with more decentralized distribution, TRUMP's bu...Reports you may have missed
CORE STRATEGY With lingering trade war talks and robust economic data dissuading a dovish Fed pivot, we think the potential for downside volatility remains elevated. While regulatory developments and institutional adoption continue to bolster the medium- to long-term outlook, no immediate “good news” seems likely. Nevertheless, we still expect crypto to outperform this year. Until we see flows return to crypto, raising cash/trimming altcoin positions appears prudent (BTC dominance higher)....
CORE STRATEGY With the looming threat of an escalating trade war and economic data robust enough to discourage a more dovish Fed stance, we believe the upside risk for the DXY and yields has increased in Q1. Moreover, the market remains highly volatile and headline-driven, inhibiting the crypto market from gaining meaningful momentum. While regulatory developments are a key medium- to a long-term tailwind for crypto, it is unlikely that...
Developments since the inauguration confirm that the new administration is prioritizing an industry-friendly regulatory environment. Coupled with an easing DXY/yields, a possible TGA spenddown, and favorable seasonality, we think it’s prudent to maintain a long bias. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat POWELL MAKES SOME EDITS When the FOMC statement was first released on Wednesday, it carried a distinctly hawkish tilt. The language reflected a more optimistic view on employment...
CORE STRATEGY: REMAINING TACTICALLY CAUTIOUS, TGA RUNDOWN + EARLY JAN FLOWS COULD PRODUCE NEEDED SPARK In our view, this cycle is far from over. However, until bonds find a bottom and the USD peaks, it’s prudent for more tactically-minded crypto investors to remain nimble and ready to capitalize on opportunities once a trend reversal is confirmed. While this could happen as early as next week due to early-January inflows, additional...