Hot things: CPI and Solana
CPI Still Hot
Despite oil prices falling and inventories growing, lagging CPI data came in hot this week. It was expected to be an eye-popping 8.8% but still managed to surprise to the upside. The CPI print of 9.1% was the highest in four decades as gas prices soared 11% month-over-month.
Due to the perceived lack of inflation relief, markets immediately reacted to the news, upping the consensus Fed Funds target for the next FOMC meeting by 25 BPS. At the time of writing, the futures market is pricing in a 100 BPS hike in two weeks.
The yield curve also promptly inverted, as inflation concerns are now compounded by recession fears. This was the second time this year that the yield curve inverted in the traditional sense and the third time since 2019. Interestingly the yield curve inversion in 2019 closely preceded a reversal of the last Fed tightening regime.
This might seem bad, but the day's events had a clear silver lining. Overall, risk assets did not experience the same gap down in prices that they were victims to following the CPI report in June. Following a pre-market sell-off, both the $QQQ and $BTC rallied back to finish the day of trading in the green.
Reports you may have missed
BTC AS A POSSIBLE STRATEGIC RESERVE Last week, we discussed the rising political tailwinds affecting crypto. Despite events earlier in the year that might have suggested a changed stance from the Democratic Party, the political divide over the issue has grown stronger. The GOP has become the party that is undoubtedly more favorable to the industry. The attempted assassination of former President Trump, juxtaposed against a Democratic Party seemingly in...
Gox Wallet Movements Still Present a Risk, But Macro & Politics Keeps Us Allocated Here (Core Strategy Rebalance)
DISCUSSING THE SUPPLY CONCERNS On balance, macro conditions have moved in our favor thus far in early Q3. We have received soft jobs numbers and softer ISM reports, and cooler inflation figures, which have sent rates and the DXY lower. Unfortunately, the mere reveal of imminent sales from the German BKA and the solidification of the Mt. Gox disbursement timeline were not enough to put a bottom in for bitcoin....
LESSONS FROM OPEC We have witnessed a significant market panic partially related to formerly locked BTC hitting the order books. The major sources of supply include:Mt. Gox – 141,686 BTCUS Government – 8,100 BTCGerman Government – 50,000 BTC At current prices, this would equate to over $12 billion in supply. This threat, combined with an inhospitable macro backdrop (rising DXY, higher rate expectations, hawkish Fed), has brought BTC down to...
LDO Risk/Reward Looks Good Here, Immediate-term Macro Picture Still Uncertain (Core Strategy Rebalance)
FLOWS AND SENTIMENT STILL SUBDUED Last week, we received a better-than-expected CPI print, but the DXY continued to move higher due to global weakness and a hawkish Fed. We discussed the risks appearing in the metrics we use to gauge sentiment and flows. The overall lack of follow-through in the crypto market was evident. Volumes, net ETP flows, the Coinbase discount, stablecoin market cap trend, and search interest for key...
