Market Update

Markets are selling off in the first day of Q4, fueled by geopolitical fears as tensions rise in the mid-east. The SPY 1.48%  and QQQ 1.50%  have dropped 1.14% and 1.92%, respectively, while the VIX has surged over 17%. XAU and DXY are gaining as investors move towards safe-havens. Crypto assets have also sold off, with BTC -0.34% briefly dropping below $62k and ETH 0.91% below $2.5k. Among altcoins, SUI -6.38% is showing resilience, gaining approximately 2% as its TVL has eclipsed the $1 billion mark, passing other networks, including POL, BLAST N/A% , TON 18.56% , and APT N/A% . In terms of economic data releases today, job openings came in higher than expected (8.04M vs 7.65M), while ISM Manufacturing was mixed, with prices and employment reading below expectations and new orders beating estimates.

EIGEN Launch

EigenLayer, an Ethereum restaking protocol, lifted trading restrictions on its native token EIGEN -5.90% , allowing for DEX trading and transfers. EigenLayer enables users to stake their Ether which can then be used to secure other protocols or networks, called Actively Validated Services (AVS). EigenLayer already supports seventeen different AVSs, including its data availability solution, EigenDA. EigenLayer has accumulated $11.75 billion in TVL, making it the third largest protocol in TVL terms, behind only LDO -1.75% and AAVE 2.84% . At its peak, when users were focused on farming points for the EIGEN airdrop, EigenLayer boasted over $20 billion in TVL. EIGEN -5.90% debuted at $4.1 and is currently trading at approximately $3.8, giving it a fully diluted valuation of about $6.4 billion.

FTX Reorganization Plan Receives Broad Creditor Approvals

The restructuring administrator of FTX has disclosed the voting results of the bankrupt exchange’s reorganization plan, with 94% of FTX Dotcom class clients voting in favor of the plan. The total value of claims from creditors who voted in favor of the plan represents about $6.83 billion. Additionally, 89% of creditors in the U.S. customer entitlement category and about 96% of creditors in the dotcom convenience class voted in favor of the plan, collectively representing approximately $285 million worth of claims. Under the reorganization plan, about 98% of creditors will receive at least 118% of their claim value in cash. The claims were marked to market previously, and creditors will not receive their claims in-kind, which would likely be worth significantly more now. The reorganization plan’s hearing is scheduled for October 7th, when a judge will decide on the plan, paving the way for creditor distributions.

Technical Strategy

Bitcoin failed to break out of its ongoing consolidation this week, as prices were repelled right at key consolidation resistance formed by the trendline from this Summer’s peak.  While many might have suspected that a move above the 200-day moving average (m.a.) might have been important, these kinds of developments are rarely effective trading signals, and trend matters more than a moving average cross in either direction.   Given that cycles are positive for Bitcoin between now and early December, it’s likely that this pullback doesn’t gain much traction but could find support either at current levels near $61.5, or below near $59.5k before turning back higher.   Resistance at $66.5k will be necessary to exceed in BTC -0.34% before being able to weigh in confidently that a breakout has occurred.  Movement above $66.5k should lead initially to $73.6k.  At present, recent weakness represents an attractive opportunity given BTC’s improved momentum and bullish cycles.

Daily Important Metrics Crypto Size Bullish signal is tied to the crypto market growing Market cap 2.22T $-24.6B(-1.10%) BTC Dominance 55.85 % (-0.40%) Stablecoins Increase in circulating stablecoins is a Bullish signal In Circulation +$120B (0.00%) In Exchanges +$22B (0.28%) BTC Metrics A decrease in Bitcoin on exchanges is bullish, indicates investors are moving coins to cold storage # BTC Exchanges +$3.0M (0.19%) Funding Rates Positive funding rates indicate traders are Bullish Aggregate +0.8107(0.0831) Binance +0.8904(0.1196) Bitfinex +0.4181(-0.0093) Bitmex +0.9932(0.5203) ByBit +0.4434(-0.5566) Deribit +0.7632(-0.4516) Huobi +1.0000(1.0000) Kraken +1.0893(0.0371) Mean +0.8107(0.0831) OKex +0.9793(0.3282) Sentiment BMI : 54 (100.00%) Futures A positive spread between Futures Prices and Spot Prices is Bullish CME Price $13,399(-43.05%) Spot Basis $-49,288(-78.63%) Volume 709,727(276.42%) Open Interest 301,121(1.51%) Options all exchanges Higher open interest change in a bull market is bullish for the sector Volume 26,407(388.43%) Open Interest 238,887 (4.01%) Vol. Put/Call Ratio 0.7690 (31.26%) OOI Put/Call Ratio 0.4737 (0.00%) All metrics as of 2024-10-01 13:49:12 All Funding rates are in bps Crypto Prices Symbol Market Cap Last Price Daily Change Year to Date Relative to BTC YTD BTC $1.24T $62,639 -1.50% 48.31% ETH $304B $2,522 -3.01% 10.85% -25.26% SOL $70B $150 -3.07% 46.98% -0.90% HNT $1.3B $7.80 4.56% -79.32% -86.06% DOGE $222,136 $0.0002 -5.49% -99.75% -99.83% All prices as of 2024-10-01 12:04:35 Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) Symbol Prem. to Nav Last Price Daily Change Year to Date Relative to BTC YTD BITW -37.47% $29 -1.62% 22.70% -17.27% ETHE -0.29% $21 -3.22% 9.26% -26.33% News Quick Bits The Block FTX’s reorganization plan gains support from over 94% of Dotcom voting creditors About 94.48% of creditors in the "dotcom customer entitlement claims" class who returned ballots voted in favor of the reorganization plan. Coin Telegraph Ohio to consider accepting crypto for tax payments and fees They tried once in 2018, but the State Board of Deposits "failed" to show any enthusiasm. An Ohio state senator has introduced a bill to require the state to accept cryptocurrency for payment of state taxes and fees. The legislation would also allow state institutions of higher education and the state pension fund to invest in cryptocurrency if they choose to.Niraj Antani introduced the bill on Sept. 30, according to a press release.Under the bill, the state tax commissioner would decide which cryptocurrencies would be accepted in any year by June 30:Read more Market Data The Block EigenLayer token trades on exchanges at $7 billion FDV as transfer restrictions lift EigenLayer lifted transfer restrictions on its EIGEN token, enabling trading on various centralized exchanges. CoinDesk Metaplanet Buys Another 107 Bitcoin, Pushing Stock-BTC Ratio to 20% The firm now holds over 500 bitcoin after a first tranche of purchases in April. Thoughts and Opinions The Block Vitalik Buterin says he supports the existence of Hezbollah betting section on Polymarket Buterin said it wasn’t about “making money from bad stuff happening" but rather “creating an environment where speech has consequence." Mining The Block Bitcoin miner CleanSpark restores 200MW in the wake of Hurricane Helene The bitcoin miner said it was able to bring its hashrate back to over 17.5 EH/s within 24 hours of restoration. Hiring The Block Base lead Jesse Pollak to head Coinbase Wallet and join the crypto exchange’s exec team “I'm really excited to take on this new mandate and to accelerate our mission of bringing a billion people onchain,” he said. Product Updates and Partnerships CoinDesk Circle Signals Plans to Bring USDC to Australia With Venture Capitalist Mark Carnegie Stablecoin giant Circle has signalled its plans to bring its digital currency, USDC, into Australia and beyond with the unveiling of a partnership with venture capitalist Mark Carnegie's MHC Digital Group, the companies announced on Tuesday. Coin Telegraph US trading app Robinhood launches ‘crypto transfers’ in Europe Robinhood users in Europe can now deposit and withdraw crypto using external wallets and exchanges like Binance. United States’ trading app Robinhood is expanding cryptocurrency services in Europe by allowing customers to deposit and withdraw crypto using external platforms.Robinhood Markets’ crypto subsidiary, Robinhood Crypto, officially launched crypto transfers for customers in Europe on Oct. 1.Source: Robinhood Crypto EURead more