Crypto Market Update

Crypto markets have broadly moved lower over the past 24 hours, though there are notable pockets of resilience. BTC 0.65% is testing its 200-day moving average, just below $64,000, while ETH 0.21% is showing relative strength, trading above $2,600. SOL 1.55% has outpaced both majors, trading just above $156. Among the top 100, standout performers include BONK -2.25% , BEAM 6.07% , WIF -1.17% , AR 1.09% , and TAO 3.91% . Meanwhile, US equity markets are rebounding from a negative start, while Chinese stocks extended their rally with the CSI300 jumping another 9% during Monday’s session. Investors are preparing for a significant macro week ahead, featuring extensive Fedspeak and key data releases: ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTs data on Tuesday, ISM Services PMI on Thursday, and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) along with unemployment data on Friday. Tomorrow also marks the beginning of October, historically the most favorable month for crypto prices.

Stablecoin/ETF Flows Increase

Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw over $1.1 billion in aggregate net inflows, pushing the 5-day moving average to $221 million in net inflows—the highest level since mid-July. BlackRock’s IBIT led the way with nearly $500 million in net USD inflows. Spot ETH ETFs also posted a strong week, with $85 million in net inflows, lifting the 5-day moving average to a daily net inflow of $17 million, the highest since mid-August. Meanwhile, stablecoins saw a slight slowdown in aggregate market cap growth but still recorded significant inflows of over $400 million for the seven days ending Sunday, 9/29. Overall, it remains clear that capital inflows are trending positively, as indicated by the 20-day moving average chart below.

Japan Contemplating Friendlier Crypto Regulation

According to a Bloomberg report, Japan is reviewing its crypto regulations, focusing on potentially lowering taxes for digital assets and facilitating the introduction of token-based ETFs. The Financial Services Agency (FSA) will assess whether the current Payments Act framework adequately protects investors, considering crypto’s primary use as an investment. This review could lead to reclassifying crypto under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, strengthening investor safeguards and possibly reducing the tax rate on crypto gains from up to 55% to 20%, similar to stocks. The FSA’s review, which may extend through winter, reflects Japan’s broader aim to adapt its regulatory landscape to foster the digital asset market. Meanwhile, major companies such as Sony and Mitsubishi UFJ are exploring blockchain and stablecoin projects, demonstrating growing interest in the space despite regulatory uncertainties.

Technical Strategy

DIA has begun to show meaningful signs of bottoming out given its 42% gain last week that carried DIA -0.01% up to the highest levels since June.  Volume expanded meaningfully on this rise, so following nearly two years of range-bound trading, DIA looks poised to start trending higher to challenge and exceed March 2024 peaks in the months ahead.   Charts began to shape up following the downtrend line breakout from mid-August.  Subsequently, we’ve seen momentum hit overbought levels for the first time since February as DIA managed to retrace 61.8% of its pullback since March.  In the short run, the ability to surpass $0.60 on a daily close should help this start to turn higher to test $0.81 which is the first real target on the upside.   However, getting over this argues for a near doubling in price to $1.59 which looks to be a meaningful initial target above $0.81.   Dips likely encounter support near $0.46-$0.47 and prove temporary.

Daily Important Metrics Crypto Size Bullish signal is tied to the crypto market growing Market cap 2.24T $-61.2B(-2.66%) BTC Dominance 56.07 % (-0.56%) Stablecoins Increase in circulating stablecoins is a Bullish signal In Circulation +$120B (0.09%) In Exchanges +$22B (0.20%) BTC Metrics A decrease in Bitcoin on exchanges is bullish, indicates investors are moving coins to cold storage # BTC Exchanges +$3.0M (0.07%) Funding Rates Positive funding rates indicate traders are Bullish Aggregate +0.7276(0.1118) Binance +0.7708(-0.0091) Bitfinex +0.4274(-0.1595) Bitmex +0.4729(0.2169) ByBit +1.0000(0.0213) Deribit +1.2148(0.9256) Huobi +1.0000(1.0000) Kraken +1.0522(0.3588) Mean +0.7276(0.1118) OKex +0.6511(-0.1834) Sentiment BMI : 55 (100.00%) Futures A positive spread between Futures Prices and Spot Prices is Bullish CME Price $23,528(-52.27%) Spot Basis $-40,052(-62.99%) Volume 188,549(-5.95%) Open Interest 296,648(0.49%) Options all exchanges Higher open interest change in a bull market is bullish for the sector Volume 5,407(-13.86%) Open Interest 229,682 (-0.77%) Vol. Put/Call Ratio 0.5859 (-51.77%) OOI Put/Call Ratio 0.4737 (0.74%) All metrics as of 2024-09-30 16:14:59 All Funding rates are in bps Crypto Prices Symbol Market Cap Last Price Daily Change Year to Date Relative to BTC YTD BTC $1.26T $63,580 -3.27% 50.54% ETH $314B $2,605 -2.24% 14.46% -23.96% SOL $72B $155 -1.65% 51.99% 0.96% HNT $1.3B $7.49 -1.02% -80.15% -86.82% DOGE $235,049 $0.0002 -16.38% -99.74% -99.82% All prices as of 2024-09-30 16:14:41 Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) Symbol Prem. to Nav Last Price Daily Change Year to Date Relative to BTC YTD BITW -37.47% $29 -3.56% 24.72% -17.15% ETHE 0.22% $22 -3.60% 13.31% -24.73% News Quick Bits CoinDesk Digital-Asset Manager Kin Launches $100M Tokenized Real Estate Fund on Chintai Network Fund tokenization is one of the frontiers of bringing real-world assets to blockchain rails in pursuit of greater efficiency, lower costs and faster settlements. CoinDesk Binance Founder Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao Is a Free Man Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao has been released from prison, according to the U.S. Bureau of Prisons (BOP). The Block South Korean crypto exchange Bithumb considers Nasdaq listing: report Bithumb said Monday that it is reviewing the option to list on the Nasdaq, according to a local South Korean report. Market Data CoinDesk Trump Inches Closer to Harris on Polymarket as Betting Passes $1 Billion Kamala Harris only leads by one percentage point, but is set to carry most of the swing states. The Block Ethereum Foundation has sold over $10 million worth of ether this year Amid calls for greater transparency, the Ethereum Foundation sold another 100 ether, according to Lookonchain. The Block October preview: Celestia set to unlock $1 billion in tokens alongside these projects While Celestia's monster $1 billion unlock dominates the rest of the field, several projects have large unlocks scheduled for the month of October. Dose of DeFI The Block Spot and perps DEX named Ethereal proposed to be built on Ethena Network Ethereal, a spot and perpetual DEX, proposed that the exchange be integrated to Ethena to be the on-chain exchange for USDe. Regulation The Block China’s former vice finance minister calls for deeper study of crypto amid global policy shifts Zhu Guangyao, China’s former vice minister of finance, said that crypto is a 'crucial aspect' of the development of digital economy. CoinDesk Japan Plans to Review Its Crypto Rules: Bloomberg The review which will occur over the coming months could also pave the way for dedicated exchange traded funds.