Crypto Market Update

Crypto has resumed its recent weakening trend following a weekend pump, with BTC 1.35% testing the $65k level, ETH 3.27% trading around $3500, and SOL -0.58% approaching $140. The ETHBTC ratio is declining again after a weekend relief rally sparked by news from Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas on Friday evening, clarifying his timeline for the ETH ETF launch. Meanwhile, the DXY continues its upward trajectory from the post-CPI selloff, driven today by a rebound in rates across the yield curve. Equities show a mixed picture today, with the ^SPX 0.42%  slightly down and QQQ 0.47%  slightly up, led by gains in the tech and consumer discretionary sectors, although larger cap names are dragging indices lower. Looking ahead, the macroeconomic calendar is relatively subdued this week, with key events including tomorrow’s retail sales data in the U.S. and significant UK inflation figures alongside the BOE interest rate decision, offering insights into European economic conditions and potential implications for the DXY’s continued strength.

Early July Launch for ETH ETF Still Seems Likely

Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas moved up his target date for the ETH ETF launches to July 2nd, based on the pace of interactions between the SEC and ETF issuers. It appears that the SEC staff has already sent issuers comments on the S-1s, and that these comments are relatively light, indicating they could be addressed this week. While this is not a major shift from the prior expectation of July 4th, reading between the lines suggests that many had anticipated a further deferral into summer. The ETH/BTC ratio rallied for the first time in several days over the weekend following Balchunas’ optimistic outlook.

Tether Launches Gold-Backed USD Stablecoin

Tether, the leading stablecoin issuer, has launched Alloy by Tether, a digital asset backed by Tether Gold. Alloy by Tether introduces a new category of tethered assets designed to ensure stability by pegging to reference assets through over-collateralization and secondary market liquidity. The first token, aUSDT, tracks the US dollar and is over-collateralized with Tether Gold (XAUT -0.44% ), backed by physical gold deposits in Switzerland. This combination allows users to engage in transactions backed by actual gold without selling their gold reserves. Operating on the Ethereum Mainnet, Alloy by Tether supports transparent management of tokens and collateral through smart contracts, paving the way for potential expansion into yield-bearing products and integration into institutional portfolios under regulated oversight in El Salvador.

Technical Strategy

STX 1.92% pullback under May lows likely postpones its rally and results in additional near-term consolidation before this can start to work its way back to new highs.  Stacks managed to retrace approximately 50% of the prior low to high range into March 2024 peaks.  However, despite the churning in price near this 50% level, STX has failed to show any evidence of meaningful bottoming out that would suggest this three-month decline had run its course.  Monday’s pullback under $1.80 has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci-based retracement zone of the prior run-up.  However, the act of undercutting $1.80 is structurally bearish, and likely allows for further weakness down to $1.50 which should provide meaningful support as a DeMark-based TDST level along with a TD Propulsion target.  Overall, STX should offer an attractive opportunity near $1.50.  However, given Monday’s support violation, a bit more weakness looks likely over the next couple weeks.

Daily Important Metrics Crypto Size Bullish signal is tied to the crypto market growing Market cap 2.39T $-30.9B (-1.27%) BTC Dominance 54.19 % (0.25%) Stablecoins Increase in circulating stablecoins is a Bullish signal In Circulation +$113B (0.00%) In Exchanges +$20B (-0.08%) BTC Metrics A decrease in Bitcoin on exchanges is bullish, indicates investors are moving coins to cold storage # BTC Exchanges +$2.3M (-0.03%) Funding Rates Positive funding rates indicate traders are Bullish Aggregate +0.4846 (-0.1156) Binance -0.1417 (-0.8606) Bitfinex -0.0357 (0.0228) Bitmex +1.0000 (0.0000) ByBit -0.0293 (-0.3562) Deribit +0.0013 (0.0526) Huobi +1.0000 (1.0000) Kraken +1.1646 (0.5258) Mean +0.4846 (-0.1156) OKex +0.1893 (0.0515) Sentiment BMI : 34 (100.00%) Futures A positive spread between Futures Prices and Spot Prices is Bullish CME Price $65,940 (0.46%) Spot Basis +$133 (0.20%) Volume 180,639 (8.36%) Open Interest 297,019 (0.34%) Options all exchanges Higher open interest change in a bull market is bullish for the sector Volume 5,467 (-36.08%) Open Interest 252,710 (-1.78%) Vol. Put/Call Ratio 0.7179 (17.42%) OOI Put/Call Ratio 0.4647 (3.32%) All metrics as of 2024-06-17 12:00:24 All Funding rates are in bps Crypto Prices Symbol Market Cap Last Price Daily Change Year to Date Relative to BTC YTD BTC $1.29T $65,567 -1.57% 55.25% ETH $422B $3,514 -2.05% 54.45% -0.51% SOL $66B $143 -3.57% 40.11% -9.75% DOGE $2.0M $0.0020 -27.02% -97.79% -98.58% All prices as of 2024-06-17 11:49:57 Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) Symbol Prem. to Nav Last Price Daily Change Year to Date Relative to BTC YTD BITW -32.38% $36 0.34% 52.40% -1.83% ETHE -5.23% $32 4.27% 67.51% 7.90% News Quick Bits The Block TON blockchain’s TVL surges above $600 million to set record high The Telegram-linked blockchain network has grown on top of the messaging app’s strong foundation, one expert said. The Block ZKsync token goes live with $925 million market cap following airdrop The ZKsync token, currently priced at around $0.25, went live on Monday and has been listed with various trading pairs on Binance. The Block The State of Crypto: The Fortune 500 Moving Onchain Coinbase’s Q2 2024 State of Crypto: The Fortune 500 Moving Onchain report, the result of  a research collaboration with The Block, provides an updated view of blockchain adoption among America’s top public companies. CoinDesk Australian Securities Exchange Gives Its First Approval of a Spot Bitcoin Listing to VanEck The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), which accounts for 90% of Australia’s equity market, has approved its first spot-bitcoin {BTC} exchange-traded fund (ETF), according to a blog from the issuer VanEck. Market Data CoinDesk Bitcoin Investment Products Saw Over $600M in Outflows Last Week: CoinShares Crypto markets have been laid low by a hawkish stance on interest rate cuts by the FOMC. Fundraising and M&A CoinDesk Protocol Village: Polkadot Community Approves 'Jam' Architecture, $65M Development Fund The latest in blockchain tech upgrades, funding announcements and deals. For the period of June 13-19. Mining The Block T-Mobile owner Deutsche Telekom will soon mine Bitcoin in addition to running nodes The company has supported several blockchains in the past through running validator nodes, including Ethereum, Flow, Polygon, and more. CoinDesk U.S.-Listed Bitcoin Miners Reached Record Total Market Cap of $22.8B in June: JPMorgan Mining stocks outperformed bitcoin in the first half of the month as investors reacted positively to news of Core Scientific’s AI deal with CoreWeave, the report said.