The global crypto market is retracing gains made during a holiday weekend rally. The total crypto market cap is trading 1.1% lower over the prior 24 hours as BTC (-0.8%) sinks back below $20k, and ETH 1.61% (-1.0%) steadies above $1k. Most alts are trading lower this morning in concert with the majors. The few exceptions include MATIC (+4.7%), UNI (+1.7%), and the clear outperformer in ATOM -8.88% (+5.6%). We speculate that the price action for ATOM stems from an initiative to increase value accrual to ATOM token holders. Legacy market investors continue to show trepidation over a possible recession, as the Dow fell another 600 points at the US market open. At the time of writing, the SPX is trading 1.1% lower while the US10Y inches higher, and the DXY leaps to a range north of 106. This divergence in rates and the USD is primarily due to a weakening EUR. Interestingly, the Nasdaq is starting to turn positive on the day, up 0.10% from the market open.
Figure: Total Number of Bitcoin Held in Miner Wallets
Core Scientific announced this morning that during June, the company sold over 7k BTC at an average sale price of $23,000 for total proceeds of approximately $167 million. The company still holds 1,959 BTC and $132 million in cash on its balance sheet. Proceeds from the sale of BTC were used to purchase ASICs, invest in additional data center capacity, and repay debt. As we highlighted in a recent Crypto Weekly, we saw significant miner capitulation in May but had seen this selling behavior wane through June. While there is the possibility that the increase in miner holdings is a function of more efficient miners coming online, it is also possible that we see further selling from these entities who are wagering that we have achieved a macro bottom and thus are holding onto their BTC. As demonstrated in the chart above, despite the miner selling, we have merely retraced to a miner holdings balance last seen in December.
On Friday, crypto broker Voyager Digital paused all trading, deposits, withdrawals, and loyalty rewards. This decision came days after the company issued a notice of default to defunct hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC), to whom it issued unsecured loans of over 15k BTC and $350 million USDC. According to CEO Stephen Ehrlich, this decision was made to give the company additional time to explore strategic alternatives. The company also mentioned pursuing any available remedies for recovery from 3AC via a court-ordered liquidation process. To support the company in the matter, Voyager has engaged Moelis & Company and The Consello Group as financial advisors and Kirkland & Ellis LLP as legal advisors. In their latest press release, Voyager shared select balance sheet data, which showed approximately $1.1 billion in outstanding loans, nearly half of which is comprised of bad 3AC debt. We will continue to update members as we receive more information on the matter.
Bitcoin's weekend rally coincided with the late week bounce attempt in Equities, but now looks to be unraveling as this first full week of July officially gets underway. Interestingly enough, two-hour charts of BTCUSD show its lows in mid and late June both lining up nearly exactly with a similar pattern in the NASDAQ. Structurally speaking, BTC's pattern suggests an upcoming test of June lows is likely over the next couple weeks, and projections based on the most recent 6/26/22 peak suggest some minor support is possible just below prior June lows just under $17,200. More meaningful support should arise near $12,100 up to 12,500 on weakness, and pullbacks to new 2022 lows in general should lead to a very attractive intermediate-term low in July. Strong resistance this week lies near weekend peaks near 20,440 which looks unlikely to be exceeded before a move down to challenge June lows.
Daily Important Metrics
Crypto Size
Bullish signal is tied to the crypto market growing
Market Cap $880B $-8.4B (-0.95%)
BTC Dominance 42.14% (-0.69%)
Stable Coins
Increase in circulating stablecoins is a Bullish signal
In Circulation $66B (-0.06%)
In Exchanges $15B (-0.00%)
BTC Metrics
A decrease in Bitcoin on exchanges is bullish, indicates investors are moving coins to cold storage
# BTC in Exchanges 2.4M (0.06%)
Funding Rates
Positive funding rates indicate traders are Bullish
Aggregate 0.0018% (-72%)
Binance 0.0095% (-3.73%)
Bitfinex 0.0179% (+264%)
Bitmex 0.0095% (-3.73%)
ByBit -0.0034% (-154%)
Deribit -0.0004% (+74%)
FTX -0.0008% (-125%)
Huobi 0.0027% (-70%)
Kraken -0.0025% (-110%)
Mean 0.0018% (-72%)
OKex 0.0016% (-84%)
Futures All Exchanges
A positive spread between Futures Prices and Spot Prices is Bullish
CME BTC Price $19,570 (-0.08%)
Spot Basis $7.42 (0.04%)
Volume 1.6M (40%)
Open Interest 438,249 (3.60%)
Options All Exchanges
Higher open interest change in a bull market is bullish for the sector
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