Following the worst quarter for bitcoin in its short history, markets opened the month on relatively stable footing as both the S&P 500 (-0.1%) and Nasdaq (-0.1%) are trading slightly lower at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the global crypto market is trading 1.2% higher compared to 24 hours prior, with BTC (+0.8%) fighting to reclaim the $20k level and ETH 1.61% (+2.4%) doing its best to remain above the critical psychological level of $1k. Returns are mixed across popular alts with the likes of SOL 1.19% (+0.4%), MATIC (+1.3%), and NEAR 0.02% (+2.0) up slightly, while AVAX (-2.6%) and DOT (-1.6%) trend lower.
As is seemingly a quarterly tradition in crypto, we have encountered yet another cycle of Tether FUD. We wrote about this last week, but several traditional hedge funds have placed short positions on the failure of USDT (see image below for futures OI on Tether). Many of these traders incorrectly equate Tether, a fully collateralized stablecoin, to UST 0.25% , which was an algo-backed stablecoin. While UST featured an inherently fragile software-based mechanism, Tether is a simple asset-backed USD stablecoin that can be minted and redeemed by liaising with a centralized authority. As is custom, Tether released its latest quarterly attestation report in May, but this morning elaborated further on its progress toward reducing its commercial paper exposure. The company reduced its CP balance from over $20 billion in March to $8.4 billion of CP today (a 58% decrease), $5 billion of which are set to mature at the end of July. You can read the latest attestation report here.
Tron (TRXUSD) continues to show tremendous outperformance in the short run, having generated much better relative performance vs many other Coins in Q2 (-13.49%). Given that technical structure looks in better shape than many which are hitting new lows, TRX looks to be one to favor for better performance as Q3 gets underway. TRX weekly charts show that despite a down quarter, this remains above prior lows made back in late January. TRX's spike into mid-June was nearly completely recouped, helping this to successfully hold intermediate-term trendline support. While a further decline in July can't be ruled out, one should look to buy dips at 0.055-0.058 on any weakness, thinking this likely has made lows for the year. Movement back over 0.07 would help this rally to challenge this year's highs at 0.0925, an area of initial resistance to a rally.
Daily Important Metrics
Crypto Size
Bullish signal is tied to the crypto market growing
Market Cap $872B +$13B (+1.54%)
BTC Dominance 42.53% (-0.20%)
Stable Coins
Increase in circulating stablecoins is a Bullish signal
In Circulation $66B (-0.28%)
In Exchanges $15B (+0.10%)
BTC Metrics
A decrease in Bitcoin on exchanges is bullish, indicates investors are moving coins to cold storage
# BTC in Exchanges 2.4M (-0.02%)
Funding Rates
Positive funding rates indicate traders are Bullish
Aggregate -0.0100% (-13,384%)
Binance -0.0034% (-77%)
Bitfinex 0.0000% (-100%)
Bitmex -0.0034% (-77%)
ByBit -0.0177% (-431%)
Deribit -0.0045% (-2,108%)
FTX -0.0008% (-83%)
Huobi -0.0142% (-436%)
Kraken 0.0098% (-4,069%)
Mean -0.0100% (-13,384%)
OKex -0.0204% (-601%)
Futures All Exchanges
A positive spread between Futures Prices and Spot Prices is Bullish
CME BTC Price $19,210 (0.79%)
Spot Basis $-77.15 (-0.40%)
Volume 2.2M (44%)
Open Interest 416,214 (0.27%)
Options All Exchanges
Higher open interest change in a bull market is bullish for the sector
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