Regulatory Momentum, Geopolitical Volatility, and AI Productivity

Discussed in today’s video:

• OCC Proposal Increases Odds of Clarity Act Passage: The OCC released proposed rules to implement the GENIUS Act, taking a restrictive stance on stablecoin yield pass-through that aligns with the banking lobby and current Clarity Act language. While subject to a 60-day comment period, the proposal reduces regulatory uncertainty and likely increases the probability that the Clarity Act advances this year.
• Crypto Demonstrates Relative Resilience Amid Geopolitical Volatility: Escalatory rhetoric surrounding Iran briefly drove cross-asset volatility, with oil spiking and the VIX moving back above 20. Growth equities retraced and tech underperformed, yet crypto held in relatively well versus the S&P 500. That change in character reinforces a constructive near-term bias.
• AI Productivity, Bonds, Policy, and Crypto: Block’s sharp rally following a 40%+ workforce reduction, framed in part around AI-driven productivity gains, reinforces a broader market narrative that technology-enabled efficiency may be accelerating. The persistent bid in bonds despite firm growth data suggests fixed income may already be pricing productivity-led disinflation and a weaker labor market. If AI adoption ultimately pressures the labor market, the likely monetary and fiscal response, particularly into midterms, could skew more accommodative than currently priced. While not the central driver of near-term price action, this policy dynamic represents a plausible medium-term scenario that crypto investors should incorporate into their framework.
• Bottom Line: Despite geopolitical volatility and equity weakness, crypto’s improving relative performance and (possible) regulatory momentum support maintaining a constructive near-term bias toward price action.

Tickers in this video: BTC -1.38%