Tax-Loss Harvesting Dampens the Odds of a Santa Rally

Discussed in today's video:

BTC was rejected again at the yearly open (~$93.4K) as broader risk assets roll over, with crypto following and alts leading to the downside. Despite noise around Polymarket Fed Chair odds, SOFR futures have edged modestly more dovish, suggesting this has not been a meaningful driver of recent price action. Tax-loss harvesting is a key driver of altcoin weakness. Assets that are negative YTD are seeing outsized selling, while the few strong YTD performers (e.g., Zcash, Syrup) are holding up relatively well. This dynamic is likely to persist thro...