Signs Increasingly Point to a Near-term Low as Shutdown Vote Looms

Discussed in today’s video:

• Market Drivers: Weak labor data and renewed concerns around the AI CapEx cycle weighed on markets. Challenger job cuts rose to the highest level since the first quarter, with “artificial intelligence” cited as the second most common reason for layoffs. This underscores the tangible economic impact of automation and made it an odd session for AI equities to lead the market lower.
• On-Chain Dynamics: Supply-adjusted coin days destroyed continues to trend higher, indicating distribution from older holders to newer investors. While this can pressure price action in the short term, it often precedes stronger bases for subsequent advances once selling pressure subsides.
• Valuation Support: Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio is approaching the 1.7–1.8x range, which has represented a favorable “buy zone” this cycle. The 50-week exponential moving average, another key cyclical support level throughout this cycle, is also being tested.
• Possible Decision Day Tomorrow: The ongoing government shutdown remains a primary macro overhang, tightening liquidity and weighing on risk appetite. A congressional vote scheduled for tomorrow could prove pivotal, with a resolution likely to ease liquidity constraints and support a recovery in crypto markets.

Tickers in this video: BTC -1.62%