Growth Data Supportive of Q4 Rally, Intramonth Trends Compounding Crypto Selloff

Discussed in today's video:

Growth surprises to the upside:  Durable goods (+2.9% vs –0.5% est.) and GDP revision (3.8% vs 3.3% est.) show stronger growth. Yields rose and risk assets fell on concerns of a hawkish Fed. Contrary to price action, this reinforces my Q4 view. Fed cares more about labor: Two cuts are still priced for this calendar year, with the Fed balancing inflation and labor risks. A growth-positive backdrop with a dovish Fed remains supportive of risk-taking. Front Half of Month Sees Better Returns: Since BTC ETF launch, returns skew heavily to the first half...