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CPI-Driven Easing in Rate Expectations Sparks Crypto Rebound, mNAV Expansion Supportive of Near-Term Continuation
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:COOLER CPI REVERSED THE HAWKISH MOVE FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK. Headline CPI came in at 2.4% YoY, below expectations, while core was in line. The hawkish shift in rate expectations following earlier labor data was fully unwound, with December Fed Funds futures repricing toward ~3%. While most projected cuts remain beyond Powell’s tenure, today’s data meaningfully eased near-term pressure on duration-sensitive assets and provided a clean...
Hawkish Data Stymies Crypto’s Bounce Attempt, Uniswap’s BUIDL Integration a Long-Term Positive
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Jobs data surprised to the upside, pushing yields higher and pricing out near-term Fed cuts, which contributed to sideways risk asset performance and muted crypto follow-through.Yen strength is a marginal headwind for global liquidity, as carry unwinds can pressure risk assets, something to monitor but not yet a major concern.Bitcoin continues to trade more like a growth asset than digital gold, tracking equity style rotations and risk...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Last week’s selloff was statistically extreme and consistent with capitulation. BTC’s deviation from its 50-day moving average, MVRV’s dislocation versus its long-term trend, record spot ETF volumes, and a spike in implied volatility all support the view that last week marked at least a local low.Follow-through has been constructive but incomplete. ETF flows have turned modestly positive, and spot demand has improved at times, but options markets...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:HIP-3 builder-deployed perpetuals are structurally expanding Hyperliquid’s addressable market. Rapid growth in non-crypto, exogenous assets, particularly commodities, points to an evolution beyond a pure crypto venue toward broader on-chain market infrastructure.Recent price action likely reflects some degree of re-rating. As capital rotates into metals and other macro-sensitive assets, investors appear to be reassessing HYPE as exposure to cross-asset speculation rather than solely as a high-beta crypto proxy.Dollar...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:The January tactical setup was valid and initially confirmed, with BTC breaking key resistance in a spot-led move supported by improving liquidity, constructive credit, and early flow stabilizationUpside momentum stalled at the point where follow-through mattered most, as even large, price-insensitive spot buying failed to extend the rally, signaling weakening market structureMacro and liquidity conditions shifted from tailwinds to constraints, with rising rate expectations, renewed JGB volatility,...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:SPOT BUYING NOT TRANSLATING INTO PRICE STRENGTH: Strategy acquired approximately $3.4B OF BTC over the past two weeks, yet Bitcoin failed to sustain momentum above ~$95K, suggesting ample incremental supply and/or weakening marginal demand.REGULATORY OPTIMISM FADING: Senate market structure efforts remain alive but face meaningful industry pushback and procedural hurdles, making them unlikely to serve as a near-term catalyst.RATE EXPECTATIONS BECOMING A HEADWIND: Strong U.S. growth and rising uncertainty around future Fed leadership...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:CLARITY ACT MOMENTUM SLOWED: Senate Banking Committee markup was delayed, pushing timelines out and reducing near-term confidence, even though longer-term passage remains more likely than not.THE MAIN CONCERNS: Restrictions on stablecoin rewards and potential de facto barriers to tokenized equities are central industry objections, echoed by Coinbase leadership.LEGISLATIVE ODDS REMAIN CONSTRUCTIVE: While some in the industry see an 80–90% chance of passage, a more realistic (unscientific) probability is closer to...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:BTC BREAKS $94K: Today’s move was catalyzed by a cooler-than-expected CPI print, reinforced by strong spot demand, and amplified by a short squeeze after repeated failures at this level, with incremental support from improving regulatory sentiment following the release of the Clarity Act draft.ADDED CLARITY BOOST: The Clarity Act draft meaningfully improves visibility around self-custody, DeFi, wallet developers, and SEC vs. CFTC jurisdiction. While the stablecoin yield restrictions are...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:THE BAD: Large incremental BTC demand failed to move price, with Strategy’s $1.2bn purchase largely absorbed near ~$92k, signaling persistent overhead supply and explaining recent choppy price action.THE GOOD: U.S. flows into crypto re-emerged today, with a strong Coinbase premium and premium-to-NAV expansion across digital asset treasury companies.MY VIEW ON POWELL’S STATEMENT: Powell’s response reasserted Fed independence rather than signaling a tighter policy bias, preserving a data-dependent reaction function and...
Tactical Setup Remains Intact as the White House Engages in Quasi-QE and a Supreme Court Decision Nears
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:The administration’s directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200B of MBS reinforces a highly stimulative policy stance, functionally resembling fiscal-driven QE despite no direct Fed involvement.Markets are focused on a potential Supreme Court ruling on Emergency Power Act tariffs, with consensus expectations skewed toward a strike-down and elevated near-term policy uncertainty.My base case is a short-term positive crypto market response if the tariffs are...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:MSCI REMOVES A MAJOR DAT TAIL RISK by keeping Digital Asset Treasury Companies in its indices and avoiding up to ~$3bn in potential outflows, though the freeze on share count increases caps future index-driven inflows.THE NET IMPACT OF THE MSCI DECISION IS MODESTLY POSITIVE, as downside risk from forced selling is eliminated but forward-looking inflows via MSCI-tracking funds are reduced.MINER SELLING REMAINS A STRUCTURAL HEADWIND, with further confirmation...
