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DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:The January tactical setup was valid and initially confirmed, with BTC breaking key resistance in a spot-led move supported by improving liquidity, constructive credit, and early flow stabilizationUpside momentum stalled at the point where follow-through mattered most, as even large, price-insensitive spot buying failed to extend the rally, signaling weakening market structureMacro and liquidity conditions shifted from tailwinds to constraints, with rising rate expectations, renewed JGB volatility,...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:SPOT BUYING NOT TRANSLATING INTO PRICE STRENGTH: Strategy acquired approximately $3.4B OF BTC over the past two weeks, yet Bitcoin failed to sustain momentum above ~$95K, suggesting ample incremental supply and/or weakening marginal demand.REGULATORY OPTIMISM FADING: Senate market structure efforts remain alive but face meaningful industry pushback and procedural hurdles, making them unlikely to serve as a near-term catalyst.RATE EXPECTATIONS BECOMING A HEADWIND: Strong U.S. growth and rising uncertainty around future Fed leadership...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:CLARITY ACT MOMENTUM SLOWED: Senate Banking Committee markup was delayed, pushing timelines out and reducing near-term confidence, even though longer-term passage remains more likely than not.THE MAIN CONCERNS: Restrictions on stablecoin rewards and potential de facto barriers to tokenized equities are central industry objections, echoed by Coinbase leadership.LEGISLATIVE ODDS REMAIN CONSTRUCTIVE: While some in the industry see an 80–90% chance of passage, a more realistic (unscientific) probability is closer to...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:BTC BREAKS $94K: Today’s move was catalyzed by a cooler-than-expected CPI print, reinforced by strong spot demand, and amplified by a short squeeze after repeated failures at this level, with incremental support from improving regulatory sentiment following the release of the Clarity Act draft.ADDED CLARITY BOOST: The Clarity Act draft meaningfully improves visibility around self-custody, DeFi, wallet developers, and SEC vs. CFTC jurisdiction. While the stablecoin yield restrictions are...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:THE BAD: Large incremental BTC demand failed to move price, with Strategy’s $1.2bn purchase largely absorbed near ~$92k, signaling persistent overhead supply and explaining recent choppy price action.THE GOOD: U.S. flows into crypto re-emerged today, with a strong Coinbase premium and premium-to-NAV expansion across digital asset treasury companies.MY VIEW ON POWELL’S STATEMENT: Powell’s response reasserted Fed independence rather than signaling a tighter policy bias, preserving a data-dependent reaction function and...
Tactical Setup Remains Intact as the White House Engages in Quasi-QE and a Supreme Court Decision Nears
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:The administration’s directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200B of MBS reinforces a highly stimulative policy stance, functionally resembling fiscal-driven QE despite no direct Fed involvement.Markets are focused on a potential Supreme Court ruling on Emergency Power Act tariffs, with consensus expectations skewed toward a strike-down and elevated near-term policy uncertainty.My base case is a short-term positive crypto market response if the tariffs are...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:MSCI REMOVES A MAJOR DAT TAIL RISK by keeping Digital Asset Treasury Companies in its indices and avoiding up to ~$3bn in potential outflows, though the freeze on share count increases caps future index-driven inflows.THE NET IMPACT OF THE MSCI DECISION IS MODESTLY POSITIVE, as downside risk from forced selling is eliminated but forward-looking inflows via MSCI-tracking funds are reduced.MINER SELLING REMAINS A STRUCTURAL HEADWIND, with further confirmation...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Near-term conditions have improved as liquidity, flows, and market structure now support a tactical rally.Liquidity and macro signals are constructive, with rising base liquidity, a softer dollar on a lag, and tightening credit spreads.Flows are turning positive, led by ETF inflows, a rising Coinbase premium, and spot-led price action amid negative funding.Bitcoin has reclaimed the 50-day MA and is likely to retest the 200-day near $105K–$106K, with...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:VALUATIONS HAVE MEANINGFULLY COMPRESSED: The median P/E multiple across the top crypto applications has fallen from ~23x in late September to ~16x today.SELECT APPS ARE PROVING MORE RESILIENT: Some protocols have grown fees even as their multiples declined (SYRUP), highlighting differences in revenue cyclicality. A small number of names have actually re-rated higher (KMNO, SKY), reflecting optimism around forward-looking earnings.LIQUIDITY REMAINS EXTREMELY THIN: Spot volumes and order book depth are...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:STRATEGY DIVIDEND RISK IS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATED – Strategy’s $750M equity sale was used to build U.S. dollar reserves, now covering ~32 months of interest and dividend obligations. Concerns around forced Bitcoin sales to fund preferred dividends can likely be put to rest.CRYPTO CONTINUES TO UNDERPERFORM INTO YEAR-END – Bitcoin and broader crypto once again lagged equities and gold, consistent with typical Santa Rally dynamics in which investors sell losers...
CPI Confirms Disinflation, But Crypto Still Fights the Tape, Why the Mid-70k's is An Interesting Level
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:INFLATION COOLING FASTER THAN EXPECTED: CPI came in below expectations, and market-based measures suggest inflation expectations remain well anchored, increasing the likelihood the Fed cuts more than futures currently price.NEAR-TERM CRYPTO HEADWINDS PERSIST: Despite a post-CPI bounce, BTC retraced and remains under pressure due to unfavorable year-end flows and relative underperformance versus broader risk assets.MID-$70K BTC IS AN INTERESTING AREA: The ~$74–75K range aligns with the aggregate ETF cost basis...