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Month-End Flows and Shutdown Put Drag on Coins, But Those Headwinds Should Fade, MSTR Tries Again for SPX Inclusion
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:BROAD RISK-OFF DAY: Crypto and equities both sold off, with digital assets showing an outsized reaction. However, the VIX, high-yield credit, and bond markets painted a more measured picture.LIQUIDITY STRAINS FROM SHUTDOWN: The ongoing government shutdown may be putting additional near-term pressure on liquidity conditions, reflected in a widening SOFR–RRP spread and increased use of the Fed’s standing repo facility as Treasury payments remain frozen.INTRA-MONTH SEASONALITY EFFECTS: Weakness tied to...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:"SNEAKY" RISK-OFF SESSION: Crypto rolled over sharply this afternoon as broader markets weakened beneath the surface despite headline indices making new highs.DAT SELLING PRESSURE: Reports of smaller digital asset treasuries selling crypto to close NAV discounts added short-term noise but were not the main driver of today’s move.FOMC: Markets expect a 25 bp cut, but the key variable is Powell’s tone and commentary around balance sheet policy.SOL ETF DEBUT: Solana’s ETF...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:ODDS OF POSITIVE TRADE RESOLUTION INCREASING: Reports of progress in U.S.–China negotiations over the weekend meaningfully raise the odds of a market-friendly outcome. The market remains conditioned to buy the “TACO” trade, and both sides are incentivized to avoid a growth scare. The news sparked a sharp rally in crypto, reinforcing a bullish Q4 outlook.HYPE DEMONSTRATING STRENGTH: Crypto prices moved sharply higher, with HYPE/BTC up roughly 50% from the...
Crypto Benefiting from Growth Rotation as Retail Access Expands and FMS Shows Untapped Allocation Potential
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:MACRO TAILWINDS BUILDING: A bounce in yields alongside strong equity and crude performance signals a growth-positive environment supportive of a rotation into crypto.RETAIL ACCESS EXPANDS: Fidelity’s addition of spot Solana trading and Robinhood’s listing of HYPE broaden retail access to the two assets.INSTITUTIONAL PARTICIPATION STILL LIMITED: The latest BofA Fund Manager Survey shows crypto allocations remain near zero, leaving substantial room for incremental inflows if sentiment continues to improve. https://vimeo....
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Galaxy Digital reported a standout quarter with adjusted EPS of $1.12 vs. $0.30 expected, driven by record trading volumes, strong M&A activity, and treasury mandates from Digital Asset Treasury companies. GLXY continues to build a “two-headed monster” with both its scaling crypto business and expanding AI data center operation.Gold dropped over 5%, potentially signaling a top in gold and a bottom in yields, while Bitcoin rallied sharply...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Credit and funding stress are easing as spreads tighten and regional banks rebound.Crypto underperformed equities today, but moves in the DXY point to a potential rally ahead.Gold remains the main momentum trade for now, yet each new high raises Bitcoin’s long-term "ceiling" and supports a bullish medium-term outlook for crypto. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC 1.24%
Credit Concerns Ease But Crypto Sentiment Still Cautious as Options Skew Reaching Extreme Bearish Levels
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:FUNDING AND CREDIT STRESS APPEAR TO BE EASING: High-yield and regional banks were bid, the VIX fell from ~29 to ~21, and no banks tapped the Fed’s repo facility, all suggesting improving credit/liquidity conditions.GOLD MAY BE TOPPING WITH POTENTIAL ROTATION INTO BITCOIN: After nearly hitting $4,400, gold reversed sharply. If credit concerns continue to fade, speculative capital could move from gold into Bitcoin.CRYPTO LAGGED EQUITIES DESPITE A RISK-ON TONE: Crypto...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:FUNDING STRESS EMERGING: The widening SOFR–RRP spread and weakness in regional banks point to tighter reserves and potential near-term volatility from funding stress.CREDIT CONCERNS RISING: High-yield and private credit names continue to roll over, reflecting growing investor caution around potential defaults in both public and private markets.CREDIT AND FUNDING RISKS ARE ACUTE, NOT STRUCTURAL: These pressures are likely temporary, as the “volatility controllers,” namely the Fed and Treasury, have the...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:ENCOURAGING FOLLOW-THROUGH AFTER SUNDAY’S BOUNCE: Markets shrugged off China’s retaliatory remarks overnight, with buyers stepping in at the U.S. open to reclaim most of the lost ground. The intraday recovery reinforced the view that sentiment remains constructive and dips are being bought.NEGOTIATION CYCLE TURNING CONSTRUCTIVE: Trump’s shift from hardline tariff threats to conciliatory rhetoric suggests we’ve moved from the “go-nuclear” phase to the “make-peace” stage in U.S.–China negotiations.MARKET CONDITIONED...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Trump’s comments on China and the subsequent 100% tariff announcement triggered a broad risk-off move. Equities, crypto, and crude fell sharply while gold and bonds rallied.Crypto 24H liquidations reached $19.2B, the largest on record. Exchange dislocations, such as SOL trading $20 higher on Coinbase versus Binance, suggest one or more market maker failures.Historical precedent shows that major liquidation events are often followed by a period of consolidation,...
Whale Selling Weighs on BTC, But the Setup Remains Constructive, BTC/Gold Rotation Framework Points to $155K–$200K Potential
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:WHALE SELLING LIKELY EXACERBATED TODAY’S WEAKNESS - A large market participant, previously active on Hyperliquid, resurfaced this week, unloading spot BTC and shorting perps.CRYPTO EQUITIES SHOWED RESILIENCE - Despite pronounced weakness in tokens, crypto-linked equities held up relatively well, which is an encouraging sign for the broader crypto market.BTC/GOLD ROTATION REMAINS COMPELLING - Gold’s rally appears mature, and a BTC/Gold framework points to $155K–$200K potential into year-end.MINERS CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM...
Hyperliquid Fundamentals Remain Intact Despite Noise, Oracle Margin Pressures Highlight the Advantage of Cheap Energy from Bitcoin Miners
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:RISK-OFF DRIVEN BY AI MARGIN CONCERNS: Broader market weakness followed reports of Oracle’s thin AI cloud margins, rather than crypto-specific factors or changes in Fed expectations.BITCOIN MINERS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH: Power cost sensitivity in AI infrastructure highlights the leverage of energy-efficient compute providers. Bitcoin miners such as WULF, CIFR, IREN, HIVE, BITF, and GLXY outperformed.GOLD-TO-BITCOIN ROTATION THESIS INTACT: Gold’s rally toward $4,000 reinforces Bitcoin’s long-term “digital gold” narrative. Each re-rating...