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Hyperliquid Fundamentals Remain Intact Despite Noise, Oracle Margin Pressures Highlight the Advantage of Cheap Energy from Bitcoin Miners
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:RISK-OFF DRIVEN BY AI MARGIN CONCERNS: Broader market weakness followed reports of Oracle’s thin AI cloud margins, rather than crypto-specific factors or changes in Fed expectations.BITCOIN MINERS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH: Power cost sensitivity in AI infrastructure highlights the leverage of energy-efficient compute providers. Bitcoin miners such as WULF, CIFR, IREN, HIVE, BITF, and GLXY outperformed.GOLD-TO-BITCOIN ROTATION THESIS INTACT: Gold’s rally toward $4,000 reinforces Bitcoin’s long-term “digital gold” narrative. Each re-rating...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:STRONG CAPITAL INFLOWS: Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.5B in trailing 7-day inflows, ETH added $800M, and stablecoin market cap grew by $5B, underscoring sustained spot demand and capital rotation into crypto.GALAXY EXPANSION: Galaxy Digital hit a new all-time high on the launch of Galaxy One, a consumer platform offering yield products, equities, and crypto trading, a strategic move to compete with Coinbase and Robinhood.ETF STAKING BREAKTHROUGH: Grayscale enabled staking for its...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:DOVISH OUTLOOK: With the government shutdown halting NFP and unemployment data, the Fed will likely head into the next FOMC without updated labor numbers, reinforcing a dovish bias. ADP payrolls missed expectations, but were not enough to trigger growth fears.FLOWS AND PARTICIPATION RISING: MSTR’s rebound is encouraging, Bitcoin ETFs have seen multiple strong inflow days, and trading volumes are climbing across BTC and ETH, signaling renewed investor participation.GOLD-TO-BITCOIN ROTATION: Gold...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:ROBINHOOD STRENGTH: HOOD has surged on prediction market traction (>$2B Q3 volume), underscoring its ability to execute and monetize Gen Z through a full financial product suite.COINBASE CATCH-UP TRADE: With HOOD’s market cap now ~50% above COIN, Coinbase may look to accelerate product launches (tokenized equities, prediction markets). Combined with a supportive crypto backdrop, this sets up Q4 as a potential catch-up opportunity.MACRO BACKDROP SUPPORTIVE: Soft JOLTS data and a...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:BTC LEADERSHIP: BTC’s Coinbase-Binance spread flipped to a premium during U.S. hours, and BTC dominance rose. This signals healthier participation and supports the ongoing crypto recovery.MACRO WILDCARD: A likely government shutdown could delay Friday’s NFP and unemployment data, increasing the likelihood of an October rate cut.SEASONALITY SHIFT: Crypto has exited its historically weak stretch and is entering Q4, a period that has historically delivered strong performance. TICKERS...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Growth surprises to the upside: Durable goods (+2.9% vs –0.5% est.) and GDP revision (3.8% vs 3.3% est.) show stronger growth. Yields rose and risk assets fell on concerns of a hawkish Fed. Contrary to price action, this reinforces my Q4 view.Fed cares more about labor: Two cuts are still priced for this calendar year, with the Fed balancing inflation and labor risks. A growth-positive backdrop with...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:CRYPTO UNDERPERFORMANCE CONTINUES: Altcoins remain weak, and the Coinbase–Binance BTC spread remains stuck in discount territory since mid-August, reflecting persistent U.S. selling.BEARISH SENTIMENT RISING: Option skew across maturities shows puts priced at their richest (on a relative basis) since the March/April tariff drawdown, highlighting defensive positioning.LIQUIDITY HEADWINDS FADING: The Treasury General Account refill has weighed on net liquidity, but with the TGA nearly full, this drag should soon subside.SEASONALITY AND...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:LIQUIDATIONS: The crypto market was hit with $1.5B in long liquidations as thin weekend liquidity and stretched positioning drove a sharp deleveraging. While short-term weakness may persist, our Q4 outlook remains intact.NVIDIA–OPENAI PARTNERSHIP: Nvidia’s $100B investment into OpenAI underscores the durability of the AI CapEx cycle. This is a direct tailwind for miners and hybrid crypto equities reallocating infrastructure toward AI/HPC compute, with Galaxy and others well-positioned to benefit...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:FOMC CONFIRMS 2H THESIS: Policy remains dovish, easing continues into above-trend inflation and solid growth.MARKET REACTION: Growth optimism is back in play with the yield curve steepening and small caps outperforming. Today’s pullback looks like profit-taking with some options expiry noise.EQUITIES VS. CRYPTO: Tech rally driven by AI and data center hype. “Miners” in our crypto equity basket (IREN, WULF, CIFR) continue to outperform.MNAVS EXPANDING: Major DAT mNAV multiples have moved...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Retail sales beat expectations, reinforcing the setup of monetary policy easing into a solid economy.Yield curve steepening points to growth optimism. Crypto rallied with BTC leading and ETH lagging, though mNAV expansion in ETH DATs suggests it could play catch-up in the days ahead.Dollar weakness remains a key tailwind, DXY breaking a 15-year trendline would be significant.BNB TRADE IDEA: Reports of easing DOJ oversight could pave the way...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:HYPERLIQUID GAINING “MAJOR” STATUS: Strong user growth, $1.3B in annualized buybacks, and an 11% token holder yield position HYPE as this cycle’s leading candidate for the next “major.”ANALOG GOLD CONTINUES TO RUN: Gold hit another all-time high, while the real 10-year yield closed at its lowest since Oct ’24, reinforcing a constructive backdrop for Bitcoin and crypto into Q4.BASE TOKEN CATALYST: Coinbase confirmed it is exploring a Base token. Near...