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DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:BTC WAS REJECTED AGAIN AT THE YEARLY OPEN (~$93.4K) as broader risk assets roll over, with crypto following and alts leading to the downside.DESPITE NOISE AROUND POLYMARKET FED CHAIR ODDS, SOFR FUTURES HAVE EDGED MODESTLY MORE DOVISH, suggesting this has not been a meaningful driver of recent price action.TAX-LOSS HARVESTING IS A KEY DRIVER OF ALTCOIN WEAKNESS. Assets that are negative YTD are seeing outsized selling, while the few...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Yesterday, the FOMC delivered a broadly dovish package that included a 25 bps cut, improved growth and inflation projections, and the start of balance sheet expansion through $40B per month in bill purchases, which came in well above expectations and supports liquidity-sensitive assets.Market pricing remains far less dovish than the Fed’s outlier projections. There is room for rates to reprice lower if Hassett becomes Fed Chair and...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Crypto rallied strongly, with ETH and SOL outperforming, and BTC and ETH/BTC testing their respective yearly open levels. U.S. spot demand (likely driven by DATs) supported the move, reflected in notable Coinbase premiums. Tomorrow’s FOMC includes a widely expected 25 bp cut, but the key catalysts will be information on the hawk/dove divide and balance sheet guidance. While historical patterns suggest near-term chop after pre-FOMC strength, two-week returns post-FOMC tend...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:ETH/BTC continues to show signs of bottoming alongside persistent small-cap tech strength.MSTR surprised the market with nearly $1B in BTC purchases, funded by roughly $963M of equity and preferred issuance. The stock held up well despite the supply, signaling strong demand and reinforcing the idea that last week’s capitulation may have marked a local low.mNAV multiples are expanding again, suggesting capital is beginning to return to the...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Positioning has reset materially with oversold BTC readings, capitulation in IBIT and MSTR, negative funding and declining open interest, improving U.S. spot demand, and early signs of a turn in ETF and stablecoin flow trends.Macro and liquidity conditions are shifting in a supportive direction as Fed net liquidity bottoms, high-yield spreads stabilize, the dollar weakens, and small-cap tech outperforms, creating a backdrop that historically favors BTC and...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Bitcoin led today’s rebound (dominance higher) on strong volume. This suggests better odds of a sustained move and provides confirmation that the idiosyncratic seller is gone.Despite the rally, funding remains negative, signaling ongoing bear complacency and potential for short covering if BTC holds strength.Follow-through after yesterday’s capitulation-like setup strengthens the case that MSTR may have bottomed.U.S. spot demand is returning as the Coinbase–Binance spread continues trending higher.Vanguard...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Today’s move was sparked by macro drivers (yields, JPY rally, risk lower) but amplified by concerns tied to MSTR and increasingly skittish bulls.MSTR shifted its narrative by openly entertaining BTC sales for the first time, something previously viewed as off-limits, even though it was always implicitly possible given their collateralization framework.Despite this apparent willingness to sell BTC, investors seem to be overreacting, considering the company has already...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:HASSETT TRIAL BALLOON: Markets interpreted Kevin Hassett’s emergence as Trump’s top Fed Chair pick as a dovish signal.DOVISH REPRICING POTENTIAL: Fed Funds futures for next Dec sit near 3%, above Miran’s 2.50 to 2.75 preference, leaving room for further dovish adjustment (good for crypto).BANK CAPITAL RELIEF: FDIC easing of the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio supports Treasury liquidity and lending, which on the margin is a positive for...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:BIG VOLUME = SELLER ABSORPTION: IBIT posted its highest volume since inception on Friday, likely reflecting significant seller demand being absorbed. Today’s follow-through reinforced that signal.FORCED SELLERS LIKELY GONE (FOR NOW): BTC finally provided beta to the S&P 500 again, tracking broader risk assets. That’s a strong indication that the forced/motivated sellers who dominated the past few weeks are no longer active.U.S. SPOT DEMAND IMPROVING: The Coinbase–Binance spread flipped into...
Capitulation Signals Strengthen as Fed Shows Openness to Easing and SOL Gains a Potential Supply-Side Tailwind
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:RECORD IBIT AND HYPERLIQUID VOLUMES: A combination of (1) BTC’s sharp overnight drop and constructive rebound, (2) all-time-high IBIT volumes, and (3) record BTC-denominated volume on Hyperliquid collectively points to sellers being absorbed and a potential capitulatory backdrop forming.POLICY EASING SIGNALS: Fed President John Williams signaled openness to further rate cuts, and both Fed Funds Futures and Polymarket repriced December cut odds to >50%, helping ease recent concerns that...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:OVERSOLD INDICATORS ARE EXTREMELY STRETCHED: Bitcoin’s rolling 30-day return is in the 6th percentile since 2020, the 7-day return is in the 3rd percentile, and its deviation from the 50-day moving average has reached a z-score of roughly -2.8. These readings have only appeared during major stress events and historically tend to coincide with exhaustion in selloffs and the setup for multi-week bounces.ETF HOLDERS CAPITULATE: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Hawkish Fed commentary and renewed concerns around private credit contributed to today’s crypto weakness.A clear positive was the absence of the forced or highly motivated seller that pressured the market last week.My bigger concern is the continued complacency and build-up of bullish leverage in BTC perps.NVDA earnings and the upcoming BLS jobs report could be meaningful catalysts later this week.Overall, while the risk-reward has improved sharply since...