AI Miners Continue Outperformance, CB Premium Remains Muted Despite Flows Increasing
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PBOC ONE-UPPING THE FED This week, China’s central bank initiated what we believe are the first steps in a broader effort to stimulate the economy, which is struggling to meet its annual growth target of around 5%. These new measures are aimed at reviving economic activity and restoring confidence, especially in the real estate and equity markets, both of which are facing significant challenges. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC)...
OUR VERDICT: POWELL NAILED IT Yesterday, Powell did exactly what risk assets wanted him to do—their actions were dovish, with a 50-bps cut and guidance for two more by year-end, but their economic commentary remained reassuring. Many bears point to this as hawkish, and since it's hawkish, it's implicitly bad for risk assets (including crypto). In our view, if Powell had taken a significantly more dovish stance than he did,...
INITIAL THESIS – SENATE MORE IMPORTANT THAN MANY RECOGNIZE This week, we witnessed what was the first – and potentially final – presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Anticipation for this event was high, with the public initially favoring Trump, as reflected in prediction markets. This preference was largely attributed to Harris's lackluster debate track record. However, the dynamics shifted during the debate itself, with reactions in prediction...
Caution in the Near-term Still Warranted, Q4 Setup Remains Compelling (Core Strategy Rebalance)
THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA SKEWS TOWARD HARD-LANDING For this week’s note, we will begin by revisiting our market map for the near-term outlook on crypto. Over the past few months, the market has oscillated between expectations of a hard landing, soft landing, and no landing. However, since Powells’s speech at Jackson Hole, market outcomes have narrowed, leaving only the two scenarios furthest to the left—hard landing and soft landing. Both...
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