ETH Network Fees Near YTD Lows, Friend.tech Resurrects
Market Update
- BTC continues to slide after trending lower over the weekend, reaching levels not seen since mid-June at $25.1k. Notably, the daily time frame is nearing a bearish “death cross,” which occurs when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses under the longer-term 200-day SMA. While not a surefire predictor of an impending bear market, it indicates a clear shift in trend, with investors showing caution in a seasonally bearish period. Ethereum is underperforming Bitcoin after falling to $1.5k, following its death cross ten days ago. Solana is underperforming among the top 10, dropping 8.8% over the last week. Markets seem to be front-running potential selling from FTX, which will receive a court ruling later this week on its request to liquidate its crypto assets, including an estimated $650m of SOL. While this represents a significant amount of outstanding supply, the holdings would still be subject to vesting lock-ups and weekly liquidation limits between $100m-$200m. U.S equities are moving higher to start the week, with investors looking to assess this week’s upcoming CPI release and next week’s FOMC.
- According to data from Coin Metrics, Ethereum supply has become inflationary over the last week as transaction fees near YTD lows. On-chain activity had initially picked up at the beginning of 2023, driven in part by a surge in NFT trading volumes fueled by the Blur token airdrop frenzy and an increase in the price of ETH. However, Ethereum's supply has remained relatively stagnant since then, with only a slight increase recorded in September. Notably, gas consumption has shifted away from NFTs towards DeFi-related activities, and NFT sales volumes have remained subdued since the second quarter. Interest in meme coins drove the adoption of Telegram trading bots like Unibot and Banana Gun, which are also seeing activity slow down after brief surges in July and August. As investors search for the next on-chain narrative, ETH supply would be slightly inflationary at 0.17% if activity from last week were annualized.
- Friend.tech, the decentralized social media platform, has made a remarkable comeback, witnessing a surge in its total value locked (TVL) to over $20 million after earlier reports of its decline. Critics had written off the platform approximately two weeks ago as "inactive." However, Friend.tech has experienced a significant resurgence lately, with daily trading volume reaching $12.3 million on September 9th, making it the third-highest day recorded and surpassing OpenSea’s daily volume. Several factors may account for this revival, including the perception that Friend.tech chats function as yield farms and the platform's increasing appeal to non-crypto influencers and content creators. Furthermore, ongoing updates have improved the user experience and functionality, contributing to Friend.tech's renewed vitality. The platform launched on Coinbase's layer-2 Base in August has displayed resilience and potential, in part due to optimistic prospects tied to a potential airdrop related to its 'points' system.
Daily Technical Strategy
Mark L. Newton, CMT
Head of Technical Strategy
While fears of an FTX related selloff might be overblown, it's still likely that Solana's weakness extends a bit further as no meaningful support is found until near $16. The last couple days of pullback have undercut the minor stabilization attempt since early September. However, the SOL downtrend remains very much intact and momentum is not yet oversold enough to suggest a low might be at hand. Moreover, DeMark-related exhaustion signals look premature by at least four trading days, at a minimum. Meanwhile, the minor uptrend from last December intersects near $16 which still lies roughly 10% below current levels. This represents the first meaningful area of possible support after recent weakness, and if achieved into late this week, it might line up with counter-trend exhaustion that could allow SOL to hold and try to bounce. At present, the two key areas to watch on the downside lie at $16, and then $14. While not expected, an immediate rally off current levels will need to surpass $22.21 to have a chance to extend back towards Summer 2023 highs. Bottom line, patience is needed for longs, but could still find some support this week at/near $16 on further weakness.
Daily Important Metrics
|
All metrics as of September 11, 2023 1:20 PM
All Funding rates are in bps
Crypto Prices
| Symbol | Market Cap | Last Price | Daily Change | Year to Date | Relative to BTC YTD |
 BTC | $490B | $25,130 | ↓ -2.24% | ↑ 52% | |
 ETH | $187B | $1,557 | ↓ -3.17% | ↑ 30% | ↓ -22% |
 ADA | $8.5B | $0.2412 | ↓ -2.23% | ↓ -2.30% | ↓ -54% |
 DOGE | $8.5B | $0.0600 | ↓ -1.91% | ↓ -14% | ↓ -66% |
 SOL | $7.3B | $17.65 | ↓ -1.53% | ↑ 78% | ↑ 27% |
 DOT | $4.9B | $4.00 | ↓ -3.12% | ↓ -7.95% | ↓ -60% |
 MATIC | $4.7B | $0.5017 | ↓ -3.04% | ↓ -34% | ↓ -86% |
 LINK | $3.1B | $5.84 | ↓ -2.81% | ↑ 5.11% | ↓ -47% |
| $1.1B | $1.12 | ↓ -1.71% | ↓ -12% | ↓ -64% |
Exchange Traded Products (ETPs)
| Symbol | Premium to Nav | Last Price | Daily Change | Year to Date | Relative to BTC YTD |
| GBTC | ↓ -17% | $18.63 | ↓ -3.47% | ↑ 125% | ↑ 73% |
| BITW | ↓ -44% | $11.67 | ↓ -4.99% | ↑ 117% | ↑ 66% |
| ETHE | ↓ -25% | $11.12 | ↓ -6.19% | ↑ 134% | ↑ 82% |
| BTCC | ↓ -0.16% | $4.59 | ↓ -2.96% | ↑ 51% | ↓ -0.21% |
News
QUICK BITS
Coin Telegraph Solana falls 6% amid fears of FTX dump — but there's a catch The price of Solana has plunged as the market fears a large FTX sell-off, however, it seems unlikely that the now-defu... |
CryptoSlate Friend Tech (FT), the web3 social token platform that saw a resurgence in user activity recently, has seen an increase in “sniper bots,” which have been causing... |
MARKET DATA
Coin Telegraph Friend.tech TVL tops $20M weeks after being declared ‘dead’ User activity on friend.tech has witnessed a major resurgence after briefly fizzling last week. De... |
Decrypt.co Ethereum Turns Inflationary as Gas Fees Plummet to 2023 Lows On-chain traders are waiting for the next narrative as interest in meme coin and Telegram bot trading cool off. |
Coin Telegraph GBTC 'discount' hits smallest since 2021 despite BTC price at 3-month lows Bitcoin sits in the shade as the GBTC share price creeps ever closer to 1:1 against the BTC price. ... |
HIRING
Decrypt.co Ex-Algorand Boss Steve Kokinos Tapped as CEO for Firm Buying Celsius Celsius creditors played a prominent role in selecting the board for Fahrenheit Holdings—appointing six of the nine members. |
HACKS, EXPLOITS, AND SCAMS
CoinDesk Hack of Vitalik Buterin's X Account Leads to $691K Stolen Hackers who took control of Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin's X account have stolen more than $691,000 after posting a malicious phishing link that gained acce... |
Reports you may have missed
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATETODAY, WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR CONSOLIDATION IN THE CRYPTO MARKET COINCIDING WITH THE SLIGHT BOUNCE IN THE RATES AND DXY 0.00% . BTC -0.06% is trading just north of $65k, while ETHBTC continues to struggle, with ETH 0.68% moving lower for the 5th consecutive day and still trading below the $3k mark. Despite the market consolidation, SOLBTC is still green on the day as SOL 3.85% works to regain the $160 level....
MARKET COMMENTARYINVESTORS WELCOMED THIS MORNING’S SLIGHTLY SOFTER THAN EXPECTED CPI DATA AND A LARGE DOWNSIDE MISS ON U.S. RETAIL SALES, ALLEVIATING INFLATION CONCERNS AND HELPING TO PROPEL STOCK INDICES TO NEW INTRADAY ALL-TIME HIGHS. The SPY -0.24% and QQQ -0.25% have gained over 1% to surpass $528 and $451, respectively, while US treasury rates have turned significantly lower, with the US10Y dropping below 4.34%. Crypto is responding in similar fashion with BTC -0.06% ...
Tornado Cash Developer Sentenced to 5 Years in Prison, LayerZero Succeeding Against Sybils
CRYPTO MARKET COMMENTARYAPRIL PPI CAME IN MIXED THIS MORNING, WITH A LARGE UPSIDE SURPRISE IN MOM READINGS (0.5% VS. 0.3% EXP.) AND YOY METRICS LARGELY IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS. The upside in the MoM reading was offset by March figures being revised downwards. Yields initially spiked upon the data release but have turned negative across the curve. Equities are showing mild gains as attention shifts towards tomorrow’s CPI data release. The SPY -0.24% has gained 0.17% and the QQQ -0.25% has gained 0.31%. Crypto assets are...
CRYPTO MARKET COMMENTARYBITCOIN REBOUNDED OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH PRICES FULLY RECOVERING FROM FRIDAY'S DRAWDOWN BY MONDAY MORNINg. BTC -0.06% is now trading just below $63k. Meanwhile, both ETH 0.68% and SOL 3.85% have lagged, trading at $3950 and $146, respectively. Altcoin flows seem to have shifted towards memecoins, which are outpacing the rest of the market today, with gains exceeding 5% from BONK -5.28% , DOGE -23.01% , and PEPE. This interest in memecoins likely stems from...
