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SOL Breaking Out, BTC Volatility Suggests Big Move is Due

Jul 26, 2023
Author
Sean Farrell
Sean Farrell AC
Market Update The Federal Reserve is expected to approve its 11th interest rate increase since last March, and concerns seem centered on whether this move is excessive given disinflationary trends. The benchmark borrowing rate is projected to reach its highest level since early 2001. Major equity indices are starting the day lower as investors await the Fed's decision, and the DXY is moving lower alongside longer-term rates. In the crypto market, $BTC and $ETH are slightly higher at the start of the day, while $SOL demonstrates impressive performance, rising nearly 7%. Conversely, $DOGE is experiencing a pullback after its significant surge of over 15%, fueled by rumors of potential integration into the Twitter app.Over the past few weeks, trading Bitcoin has been relatively uneventful, akin to watching paint dry. The legitimacy of this feeling is demonstrated in the chart below, which shows a plummet in Bitcoin volatility, with the 30-day realized volatility at levels not seen since July 2020. Such a drastic drop in volatility typically precedes a significant price move. Historically, these moves have tended to be to the upside. Today's FOMC presser commentary could prove to be a crucial factor, potentially shaking both ETH and BTC out of their current consolidation patterns. A

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