Friday Night Frights
Key Takeaways
- We are writing to update our clients on the events of this past weekend and highlight a few data points we will be keeping an eye on moving forward into the next couple of weeks.
- On Friday, December 3rd, over $2 billion in long positions across the global crypto market were liquidated, nearly $850 million of which were from BTC futures.
- Almost $500 billion in total market value was wiped from the global crypto market cap, as Bitcoin fell over 20% from $57k to a low of approximately $45k (Source: CoinMarketCap). The rest of the crypto universe essentially followed suit.
- We ultimately saw strong buying support at the 200-day moving average as the Bitcoin price has since steadied and at the time of writing fluctuates between $48k and $49k.
- Altcoins have performed more robustly in recent weeks, leading us to consider that the institutionalization of Bitcoin may be leading to outsized influence from macro uncertainty as compared to the rest of the crypto market.
- While there is reason to believe that Bitcoin consolidates around its current level before heading higher, we have yet to find substantial evidence that Bitcoin is entering what we would consider a prolonged bear market.
Leverage Wipeout
On Friday evening, Bitcoin’s pric...Reports you may have missed
Over Friday and Saturday last week, Avalanche Labs put on their second edition of ‘Avalanche House’ in Brooklyn (with the first one in Berlin). The team attended Friday afternoon’s session as outlined below and shared the following notes and perspectives from the panelists. FIGURE: AVALANCHE HOUSE PANELIST SESSIONSTRATEGIC FUNDRAISING DURING A BEAR MARKET _Lydia Chiu (Ava Labs), Tom Schmidt (Dragonfly Capital), Nina Bambysheva (Forbes), Travis Scher (North Island Ventures)__ _The...
As shown below, Bitcoin's forward performance is far stronger when it is trading above its 200D moving average: >200D, 6M forward return +193% <200D, 6M forward return +10% You get the picture, Bitcoin is a network effect/network value asset, and also apparently aided by price momentum. _STRATEGY: BUY BITCOIN OR BUY CRYPTO EQUITIES_ The associated action for Rule #3 is simple. - go long _WHY IS THIS...
But unlike past weekends, Bitcoin barely responded to these headlines (see below). In fact, Bitcoin is indeed flat/rising over the long weekend: - at 4pm ET Friday (5/28), Bitcoin was ~$34,900 - at 3:50pm ET Sunday (5/30) when FT story "broke" Bitcoin was ~$36,000 - as of this writing at 4:30pm ET (5/31), Bitcoin is $36,900, +$900 vs FT headline In other words, despite another set of "negative headlines" Bitcoin...