Bitcoin crosses above 200D, invoking Rule #3 --> Buy Bitcoin above its 200D
STRATEGY: Rule #3 kicking in --> Buy Bitcoin --> $100K into YE
Bitcoin crosses above its 200D...
Bitcoin today crossed above its 200D moving average ($44,938), invoking Bitcoin Rule #3 --> Buy Bitcoin $BTC above its 200D moving average
- Bitcoin fell below its 200D on May 18th, 2021
- Recall, we "stepped aside" on Bitcoin at that date
- Bitcoin has since been range-traded between $30k-$40k
With Bitcoin crossing above its 200D, we think Bitcoin will rally strongly into YE. This is consistent with our view that "everything rallies" into YE.
RECAP: 5 rules of Bitcoin
Our 5 rules of Bitcoin are below. The most known is #5, the "10 best days", or the rationale to HODL Bitcoin. But Rule #3 is a biggie.
As shown below, Bitcoin's forward performance is far stronger when it is trading above its 200D moving average:
>200D, 6M forward return +193%
<200D, 6M forward return +10%
You get the picture, Bitcoin is a network effect/network value asset, and also apparently aided by price momentum.
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Unpopular opinion --> We expect stable/rising prices. Setup for Bitcoin and crypto is "less bad" into the weekend = good.
_PS: HOW DOES BITCOIN SPILL OVER INTO EQUITIES?_ These crypto sell-offs have potential impacts on equity and broader markets, for several reasons: - many US crypto holders also own equities (ala Robinhood) - Bitcoin futures are traded by macro funds, hence, drawdowns/limit down moves impact macro markets - Bitcoin has become somewhat loosely connected to the equities, because both are "risk-on" assets -- more apparent these days
