Crypto Research
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INDICATIONS OF FROTH Given the violent nature of the past month’s rally, we have been vigilant for signs of a local top. It would be disingenuous to claim that some qualitative "top signals" are not flashing right now. XRP—which we noted as a possible election trade back in October—with only 1–2k daily active addresses (vs ETH's over 400k, source: Artemis), is ripping toward new highs while influencers take to TikTok...
TURNING CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC There is a lot of pain in the ETHBTC chart. It peaked in December 2021 and, save for several brief rallies, has been on a downwards slope ever since. It peaked at just under 0.09 and currently trades around 0.038. Source: TradingView Fortunately, we have anchored most of our attention on BTC and SOL this cycle, as BTC has continued to lead the market in a generally...
BTC DECOUPLING FROM EQUITIES Over the past two weeks, BTC has begun to decouple from other risk assets. While the broader macro environment experienced choppy conditions from November 12th through yesterday, BTC has appeared indifferent to fluctuations in risk appetite, continuing its upward momentum and approaching the $100K milestone. A chart of BTC correlations highlights this decoupling, with sharp declines in its correlation to the QQQ, SPX, and IWM. The...
WEEKLY RECAP Despite liquid crypto prices rising, private market funding remains lackluster thus far in Q4. Aggregate funding fell 29% week-over-week, decreasing from $155 million to $109 million, while deal count fell by over 31% from 22 to 15. Infrastructure was the leading category from both a financing and deal count perspective and included our Deal of the Week, Noble. The largest deal was Monkey Tilt, which raised $30 million...
MSTR Bid and IBIT Options Power Market Higher, JTO Eyes Catch-Up Amid Surging Solana DEX Volumes
In today's video, we break down the massive Microstrategy bid, IBIT options, near-term macro considerations, Solana's impressive on-chain activity, and the potential beneficiaries of these emerging trends. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC
WEEKLY RECAP Total funding has rebounded from last week’s abnormally low amount, increasing 251% from $44 million to $154 million. Infrastructure was the leading category, raising $99 million across 13 deals. This week’s largest deal fell into the Infrastructure bucket; 0G Labs, a former Deal of The Week, raised $40 million in a Seed round, bringing its total funding to $75 million. From a deal stage perspective, funding was concentrated...
Market Lacks Convincing Signs of Market Froth, Major Demand Side Catalyst for CORE (Core Strategy Rebalance)
FROTH OR REPRICING? A heated debate is unfolding among crypto investors: have we just hit a local top, or will the breakout after eight months of consolidation continue higher through year-end? The crypto market has surged rapidly, as we anticipated, but the key question remains—can this rally sustain itself, or is it nearing exhaustion? Anecdotally, we are seeing renewed interest in crypto from casual observers. Friends and family are once...
MAPLE OVERVIEW Maple Finance is a digital asset lending platform founded in 2019 by a group of former investment bank and credit professionals. Maple Finance has an institutional lending focus with industry-standard compliance and due diligence for all borrowers and lenders, providing a transparent and frictionless lending experience. Maple is the gateway for institutions to access on-chain credit. Most borrowers are institutions in the digital asset space and are subject...