Crypto Research
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MARKET COMMENTARYCRYPTO INVESTORS ARE ANXIOUSLY WAITING FOR A DECISION ON AN ETHEREUM ETF APPROVAL AHEAD OF TODAY’S FIRST FINAL DEADLINE. Congress wrote a letter to Gary Gensler yesterday urging him to maintain a consistent and equitable approach for the Ethereum application, as well as for “other digital asset-backed ETPs.” ETH continues to lead the market, gaining 1.51% to $3,795 while BTC has dropped 2.10% to $67.7k. ETHBTC has risen 3.61%...
Some Quick Thoughts on ETH ETF, Regulation, and Updates on Recent Tactical Trade Ideas
ON ETH APPROVAL AND VOLATILITY We expect a decision on the ETH ETFs today and are bullish on the prospect of approval. ETH open interest is well above all-time highs. Whichever way this breaks, expect some potentially whipsawing volatility. Our base case right now is that we are likely to see a bit of a rally and drawdown post-19b-4 approval, then a slow march higher into S-1 approval and listing....
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATEBTC IS BACK IN THE GREEN TODAY, RECLAIMING $70K FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S DIP. ETF flows appear to be returning in full force, with another strong day of inflows, capping the largest 5-day period for inflows since mid-March. ETH is down slightly on the day, consolidating around $3750 as investors await word from the SEC on ETF approval. ETH CME futures saw outsized volume yesterday as institutional investors showed interest...
In today’s video, we discuss the SEC's sudden shift in stance regarding Ethereum spot ETFs, which could result in 19b-4s being approved as early as tomorrow morning. Therefore, we are increasing our Core Strategy allocation to ETH and ETH-adjacent assets. https://vimeo. com/948942753/9c6d4715db? share=copy
MARKET COMMENTARYAMID A SUDDEN PIVOT IN THE SEC’S STANCE REGARDING AN ETHEREUM SPOT ETF, MULTIPLE FILERS SUBMITTED AMENDMENTS THIS MORNING, INCLUDING THE REMOVAL OF LANGUAGE PERTAINING TO STAKING UNDERLYING ETHEREUM. It is now expected that 19b-4 approvals will come as soon as tomorrow, with less clarity on when S-1 statements will be approved. ETH closed yesterday with a daily gain of 19.25%, the largest daily gain since January 2021. ETH (+3.22%) continues to rise today, trading near $3,800, while...
IMMINENT 19B-4 APPROVAL SEEMS LIKELY Up until yesterday, we were quite bearish about the prospects of a spot ETH ETF approval. Our off-the-record conversations with those close to the situation confirmed this sentiment. ETF experts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, who accurately predicted the Bitcoin ETF call, also assigned a very low probability of approval. The market agreed as well, with the ETHE discount widening from 8% to over 20%...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATEDESPITE YIELDS MOVING HIGHER, RISK ASSETS ARE GENERALLY FARING WELL TODAY. BTC BRIEFLY MOVED ABOVE $67,000 AGAIN IN THE MORNING HOURS AND IS NOW HOVERING JUST ABOVE THAT LEVEL. ETH remains in a holding pattern, trading around $3,000 as it awaits a likely denial from the SEC this week on spot ETFs. The ETHE discount did compress slightly last week, possibly driven by longshot bets that the SEC...
WEEKLY RECAP Weekly funding decreased 25% from $209 million to $157 million, and the total deal count declined 19% from 32 to 26 deals. DeFi was the most funded category this week, anchored by Polymarket’s $45 million Series B round, the largest fundraise of the week. Infrastructure was not far behind, totaling $61 million across eight deals. As we begin to approach the end of 1H 2024, Infrastructure and DeFi have been the two consistent...
FLOWS RETURNING TO THE MARKET Last week, we discussed how our base case remained that conditions for liquidity-sensitive assets like crypto would improve in the near term, and we continued to lean on our "Buy in May" thesis, given the constructive setup. A combination of (1) a dovish Federal Reserve, (2) an accelerated tapering of quantitative tightening (QT), and (3) a Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) that met investors’ expectations contributed...
MARKET COMMENTARYU.S. EQUITIES ARE RELATIVELY FLAT AS THEY CONSOLIDATE ABOVE PRIOR ALL-TIME HIGHS. THE SPX IS TRADING AT 5,300, AND THE NDQ IS HOVERING NEAR $18,600, WHILE THE DXY (-0.07%) IS SHOWING A SLIGHT DECLINE, TRADING AT $104.4. Crypto assets are showing strength, with BTC rising 2.84% to $67.1k and ETH surging 4.86% to $3,090. Liquid staking tokens are building on Ether's outperformance, as LDO and PENDLE have gained 10.11% and 13.43%, respectively. Similarly, layer-2...
