Crypto Research
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In today’s video, we explore the recent signs of capitulation and deleveraging in the crypto market over the past two weeks. We’ll also revisit the risks we highlighted in early February that could impact crypto prices and update our stance on whether these concerns still apply. Next, we’ll take a brief look at potential outcomes for the WH Crypto Summit and review some changes in our Core Strategy. While we...
CORE STRATEGY Most of the risks that prompted us to turn cautious in early February still persist, so we believe it’s right to remain patient. However, the near-term (2–4 weeks) setup is starting to look compelling for a tactical rally as sentiment is miserable, liquidity conditions are improving on the margin, a lot of risk has already been priced in, and we’ve seen serious capitulation and deleveraging. All eyes will...
Today, we discuss how the unwind of the popular BTC basis trade could act as a near-term headwind, explore why crypto now appears to have a negative correlation with bonds and explain our (admittedly low-conviction) view that altcoins might bounce soon. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC
In today’s video, we’ll break down the recent price action across altcoins, examine why RAY might merit reconsideration in our Core Strategy portfolio, and highlight a couple of silver linings that could signal a brighter outlook for bulls (eventually). TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC
MSTR Reloading Presents Opportunity for Bounce, But Broader Picture Remains the Same
CORE STRATEGY There is a chance that MSTR flows spark a short-term bounce here, but assets further out on the risk curve continue to face headwinds from ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade and monetary policy. Although the current administration takes a pro-crypto stance, there appears to be no immediate catalyst to revive market enthusiasm. We still anticipate that crypto will outperform this year, but until we see further progress on trade/monetary...
In today's video, we cover the from this week, highlight the underwhelming flow picture, and dive into BTC's relationship with various equity benchmarks. We'll also explore why gold is outperforming BTC and the significance of the staked ETH ETFs. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC
CORE STRATEGY With lingering trade war talks and robust economic data dissuading a dovish Fed pivot, we think the potential for downside volatility remains elevated. While regulatory developments and institutional adoption continue to bolster the medium- to long-term outlook, no immediate “good news” seems likely. Nevertheless, we still expect crypto to outperform this year. Until we see flows return to crypto, raising cash/trimming altcoin positions appears prudent (BTC dominance higher)....