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Bitcoin’s Tech Correlation Strengthens as AI Repricing Deepens and Financial Conditions Tighten
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:SECTOR CORRELATIONS CONFIRM BITCOIN’S GROWTH SENSITIVITY – Bitcoin’s rolling 90-day correlation versus the 11 iShares U.S. sector ETFs from BlackRock shows Technology in a clear lead at just under 0.60, with Consumer Discretionary a distant second near 0.47. This reinforces that BTC remains tightly linked to cyclical, growth-oriented equity segments. The recent defensive rotation in equities is therefore a marginal headwind for crypto, though insufficient on its...
CPI-Driven Easing in Rate Expectations Sparks Crypto Rebound, mNAV Expansion Supportive of Near-Term Continuation
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:COOLER CPI REVERSED THE HAWKISH MOVE FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK. Headline CPI came in at 2.4% YoY, below expectations, while core was in line. The hawkish shift in rate expectations following earlier labor data was fully unwound, with December Fed Funds futures repricing toward ~3%. While most projected cuts remain beyond Powell’s tenure, today’s data meaningfully eased near-term pressure on duration-sensitive assets and provided a clean...
Hawkish Data Stymies Crypto’s Bounce Attempt, Uniswap’s BUIDL Integration a Long-Term Positive
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Jobs data surprised to the upside, pushing yields higher and pricing out near-term Fed cuts, which contributed to sideways risk asset performance and muted crypto follow-through.Yen strength is a marginal headwind for global liquidity, as carry unwinds can pressure risk assets, something to monitor but not yet a major concern.Bitcoin continues to trade more like a growth asset than digital gold, tracking equity style rotations and risk...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Last week’s selloff was statistically extreme and consistent with capitulation. BTC’s deviation from its 50-day moving average, MVRV’s dislocation versus its long-term trend, record spot ETF volumes, and a spike in implied volatility all support the view that last week marked at least a local low.Follow-through has been constructive but incomplete. ETF flows have turned modestly positive, and spot demand has improved at times, but options markets...
Skeptical That “The Lows” Are In, but Risk/Reward Has Improved, Deploying Some Dry Powder (Portfolio Rebalance)
IMPORTANT NOTICE: I will be out of the office through Friday and will publish selectively if warranted by market conditions. PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat _NOTE: SEE THE END OF THIS NOTE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE LATEST REBALANCE._ STOPS GET HUNTED The crypto selloff accelerated throughout the weekend, with BTC falling to ~$74k, ETH to ~$2,150, and SOL to ~$96. 24-hour liquidations across perpetual futures markets reached...
PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat WARSH IS FED CHAIR NOMINEE Reports late Thursday afternoon indicated that the White House was preparing to support Kevin Warsh as the nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair. Warsh surged to over 90% probability on Polymarket around 7:00 p.m. on Thursday, overtaking Rick Rieder. On Friday morning, President Trump announced via Truth Social that he was moving forward with Warsh as his...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:HIP-3 builder-deployed perpetuals are structurally expanding Hyperliquid’s addressable market. Rapid growth in non-crypto, exogenous assets, particularly commodities, points to an evolution beyond a pure crypto venue toward broader on-chain market infrastructure.Recent price action likely reflects some degree of re-rating. As capital rotates into metals and other macro-sensitive assets, investors appear to be reassessing HYPE as exposure to cross-asset speculation rather than solely as a high-beta crypto proxy.Dollar...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:The January tactical setup was valid and initially confirmed, with BTC breaking key resistance in a spot-led move supported by improving liquidity, constructive credit, and early flow stabilizationUpside momentum stalled at the point where follow-through mattered most, as even large, price-insensitive spot buying failed to extend the rally, signaling weakening market structureMacro and liquidity conditions shifted from tailwinds to constraints, with rising rate expectations, renewed JGB volatility,...
PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat _Note: Changes to both portfolios are discussed at the end of this note._ THE BREAKDOWN Entering January, my view on crypto remained measured from a medium-term perspective but tactically constructive. In my January 6th strategy note, I argued that while the broader setup for 2026 still pointed to a choppier first half and a more compelling accumulation opportunity later in the year, the...
PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat EXECUTIVE SUMMARYBitGo is a cycle-tested institutional crypto infrastructure platform, founded in 2013, with a custody-first, full-stack offering spanning qualified custody, staking, prime brokerage, settlement, and stablecoin infrastructure.The company went public on Thursday, raising approximately $200 million in primary proceeds at $18 per share, implying a ~$2.1bn market cap.BitGo uses qualified custody as a wedge to onboard institutional clients, then increases monetization per dollar...
PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat THE BREAKDOWN Entering January, my view on crypto was still measured from a cyclical perspective, but tactically constructive. In my January 6th strategy note, I argued that while the broader setup for 2026 still pointed to a choppier first half and a more compelling accumulation opportunity later in the year, the near-term risk reward had begun to skew favorably. The key drivers behind...
