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DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Today’s move was sparked by macro drivers (yields, JPY rally, risk lower) but amplified by concerns tied to MSTR and increasingly skittish bulls.MSTR shifted its narrative by openly entertaining BTC sales for the first time, something previously viewed as off-limits, even though it was always implicitly possible given their collateralization framework.Despite this apparent willingness to sell BTC, investors seem to be overreacting, considering the company has already...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:HASSETT TRIAL BALLOON: Markets interpreted Kevin Hassett’s emergence as Trump’s top Fed Chair pick as a dovish signal.DOVISH REPRICING POTENTIAL: Fed Funds futures for next Dec sit near 3%, above Miran’s 2.50 to 2.75 preference, leaving room for further dovish adjustment (good for crypto).BANK CAPITAL RELIEF: FDIC easing of the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio supports Treasury liquidity and lending, which on the margin is a positive for...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:BIG VOLUME = SELLER ABSORPTION: IBIT posted its highest volume since inception on Friday, likely reflecting significant seller demand being absorbed. Today’s follow-through reinforced that signal.FORCED SELLERS LIKELY GONE (FOR NOW): BTC finally provided beta to the S&P 500 again, tracking broader risk assets. That’s a strong indication that the forced/motivated sellers who dominated the past few weeks are no longer active.U.S. SPOT DEMAND IMPROVING: The Coinbase–Binance spread flipped into...
Capitulation Signals Strengthen as Fed Shows Openness to Easing and SOL Gains a Potential Supply-Side Tailwind
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:RECORD IBIT AND HYPERLIQUID VOLUMES: A combination of (1) BTC’s sharp overnight drop and constructive rebound, (2) all-time-high IBIT volumes, and (3) record BTC-denominated volume on Hyperliquid collectively points to sellers being absorbed and a potential capitulatory backdrop forming.POLICY EASING SIGNALS: Fed President John Williams signaled openness to further rate cuts, and both Fed Funds Futures and Polymarket repriced December cut odds to >50%, helping ease recent concerns that...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:OVERSOLD INDICATORS ARE EXTREMELY STRETCHED: Bitcoin’s rolling 30-day return is in the 6th percentile since 2020, the 7-day return is in the 3rd percentile, and its deviation from the 50-day moving average has reached a z-score of roughly -2.8. These readings have only appeared during major stress events and historically tend to coincide with exhaustion in selloffs and the setup for multi-week bounces.ETF HOLDERS CAPITULATE: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have...
CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat I will discuss changes to both portfolios at the end of this note. WHY I TURNED TACTICALLY CAUTIOUS LAST WEEK Last week, I outlined several reasons for near-term caution in crypto and recommended raising some cash, tilting long exposure toward BTC, or seeking downside protection via options. Signals of deterioration were building, and the rationale for that stance is...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Hawkish Fed commentary and renewed concerns around private credit contributed to today’s crypto weakness.A clear positive was the absence of the forced or highly motivated seller that pressured the market last week.My bigger concern is the continued complacency and build-up of bullish leverage in BTC perps.NVDA earnings and the upcoming BLS jobs report could be meaningful catalysts later this week.Overall, while the risk-reward has improved sharply since...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:BTC dropped more than 4% while dominance also moved lower. That pairing is extremely rare and usually appears during periods of forced or highly motivated selling. Today's altcoin resilience (on a relative basis) supports the view that the pressure is concentrated in BTC.Funding remains positive, and the Coinbase discount persists.FOMC communication continues to lean hawkish. Soft job data and strong NVIDIA earnings next week could support a...
In today's video, I walk through the key points from yesterday's strategy note, including the near-term crypto market setup, the factors behind my shift toward a more risk-averse stance, and the indicators I am watching that could turn the outlook in a more positive direction. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC 0.01% ETH -1.36%
Reasons For Tactical Caution Despite a Constructive Macro Backdrop (Core Strategy Rebalance)
CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat I discuss the changes to both portfolios at the end of this note. A RECAP Before explaining my tactical shift, it is worth revisiting why I entered Q4 with a constructive stance on crypto and why I have maintained that view in recent weeks:POLICY FRAMEWORK: As I have discussed since the summer months, the administration’s current playbook aims to...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:SHUTDOWN RESOLUTION NEARING: The Senate advanced its funding bill, with a House vote expected midweek and Polymarket implying a resolution by Thursday. Ending the shutdown would remove a major drag on liquidity and growth, improving the backdrop for crypto.MUTED FOLLOW-THROUGH IN CRYPTO: Despite a strong Sunday rally and firm equity gains Monday, BTC 0.01% and ETH -1.36% showed limited upside and a persistent Coinbase discount, signaling weak U.S. spot participation. We’d...
Crypto Showing Signs of Seller Exhaustion as MSTR Returns to Market and Shutdown Resolution Likely Nears
CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat LIQUIDITY & GROWTH PRESSURES PERSIST The Treasury’s need to refill its reserves has led to roughly $700B in issuance over the past several months, with no corresponding fiscal outflows back into the economy. This has tightened bank reserves and liquidity conditions and likely reduced passive flows into equities, since a portion of those Treasury payments would have otherwise found...
