Crypto Research
0 Results
Thank you to everyone who joined my annual outlook call today. Below are several high-level takeaways, along with the latest Core Strategy and Crypto Equity portfolios. Click here to download the presentation deck. THE HEADWINDSNEAR-TERM RISKS MOUNTING: Q1 risks to crypto include a potential government shutdown, renewed trade policy volatility, waning confidence in AI capex returns, and uncertainty around the Fed Chair transition, all of which could pressure markets currently...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:BTC WAS REJECTED AGAIN AT THE YEARLY OPEN (~$93.4K) as broader risk assets roll over, with crypto following and alts leading to the downside.DESPITE NOISE AROUND POLYMARKET FED CHAIR ODDS, SOFR FUTURES HAVE EDGED MODESTLY MORE DOVISH, suggesting this has not been a meaningful driver of recent price action.TAX-LOSS HARVESTING IS A KEY DRIVER OF ALTCOIN WEAKNESS. Assets that are negative YTD are seeing outsized selling, while the few...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Yesterday, the FOMC delivered a broadly dovish package that included a 25 bps cut, improved growth and inflation projections, and the start of balance sheet expansion through $40B per month in bill purchases, which came in well above expectations and supports liquidity-sensitive assets.Market pricing remains far less dovish than the Fed’s outlier projections. There is room for rates to reprice lower if Hassett becomes Fed Chair and...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Crypto rallied strongly, with ETH and SOL outperforming, and BTC and ETH/BTC testing their respective yearly open levels. U.S. spot demand (likely driven by DATs) supported the move, reflected in notable Coinbase premiums. Tomorrow’s FOMC includes a widely expected 25 bp cut, but the key catalysts will be information on the hawk/dove divide and balance sheet guidance. While historical patterns suggest near-term chop after pre-FOMC strength, two-week returns post-FOMC tend...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:ETH/BTC continues to show signs of bottoming alongside persistent small-cap tech strength.MSTR surprised the market with nearly $1B in BTC purchases, funded by roughly $963M of equity and preferred issuance. The stock held up well despite the supply, signaling strong demand and reinforcing the idea that last week’s capitulation may have marked a local low.mNAV multiples are expanding again, suggesting capital is beginning to return to the...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Positioning has reset materially with oversold BTC readings, capitulation in IBIT and MSTR, negative funding and declining open interest, improving U.S. spot demand, and early signs of a turn in ETF and stablecoin flow trends.Macro and liquidity conditions are shifting in a supportive direction as Fed net liquidity bottoms, high-yield spreads stabilize, the dollar weakens, and small-cap tech outperforms, creating a backdrop that historically favors BTC and...
NOVEMBER RECAP Despite liquid token prices suffering steep drawdowns over the past two months, the private market has remained extremely strong. There was a total of $1.4 billion in funding across 57 deals in November. This was the third consecutive month with more than $1 billion in funding, marking the longest monthly streak since Q1 2023. In addition to funding totals increasing, there has been a notable rise in valuations....
CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat TLDR On 11/12, I highlighted an accelerated deterioration in market conditions and recommended raising cash or adding downside protection. By 11/18, early signs of capitulation were emerging, and I argued that we were due for at least a short-term bounce. I was admittedly a couple of days early, as BTC briefly revisited the low $80k range after trading near...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Bitcoin led today’s rebound (dominance higher) on strong volume. This suggests better odds of a sustained move and provides confirmation that the idiosyncratic seller is gone.Despite the rally, funding remains negative, signaling ongoing bear complacency and potential for short covering if BTC holds strength.Follow-through after yesterday’s capitulation-like setup strengthens the case that MSTR may have bottomed.U.S. spot demand is returning as the Coinbase–Binance spread continues trending higher.Vanguard...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Today’s move was sparked by macro drivers (yields, JPY rally, risk lower) but amplified by concerns tied to MSTR and increasingly skittish bulls.MSTR shifted its narrative by openly entertaining BTC sales for the first time, something previously viewed as off-limits, even though it was always implicitly possible given their collateralization framework.Despite this apparent willingness to sell BTC, investors seem to be overreacting, considering the company has already...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:HASSETT TRIAL BALLOON: Markets interpreted Kevin Hassett’s emergence as Trump’s top Fed Chair pick as a dovish signal.DOVISH REPRICING POTENTIAL: Fed Funds futures for next Dec sit near 3%, above Miran’s 2.50 to 2.75 preference, leaving room for further dovish adjustment (good for crypto).BANK CAPITAL RELIEF: FDIC easing of the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio supports Treasury liquidity and lending, which on the margin is a positive for...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:BIG VOLUME = SELLER ABSORPTION: IBIT posted its highest volume since inception on Friday, likely reflecting significant seller demand being absorbed. Today’s follow-through reinforced that signal.FORCED SELLERS LIKELY GONE (FOR NOW): BTC finally provided beta to the S&P 500 again, tracking broader risk assets. That’s a strong indication that the forced/motivated sellers who dominated the past few weeks are no longer active.U.S. SPOT DEMAND IMPROVING: The Coinbase–Binance spread flipped into...