Crypto Research
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DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:HIP-3 builder-deployed perpetuals are structurally expanding Hyperliquid’s addressable market. Rapid growth in non-crypto, exogenous assets, particularly commodities, points to an evolution beyond a pure crypto venue toward broader on-chain market infrastructure.Recent price action likely reflects some degree of re-rating. As capital rotates into metals and other macro-sensitive assets, investors appear to be reassessing HYPE as exposure to cross-asset speculation rather than solely as a high-beta crypto proxy.Dollar...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:The January tactical setup was valid and initially confirmed, with BTC breaking key resistance in a spot-led move supported by improving liquidity, constructive credit, and early flow stabilizationUpside momentum stalled at the point where follow-through mattered most, as even large, price-insensitive spot buying failed to extend the rally, signaling weakening market structureMacro and liquidity conditions shifted from tailwinds to constraints, with rising rate expectations, renewed JGB volatility,...
PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat _Note: Changes to both portfolios are discussed at the end of this note._ THE BREAKDOWN Entering January, my view on crypto remained measured from a medium-term perspective but tactically constructive. In my January 6th strategy note, I argued that while the broader setup for 2026 still pointed to a choppier first half and a more compelling accumulation opportunity later in the year, the...
PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat EXECUTIVE SUMMARYBitGo is a cycle-tested institutional crypto infrastructure platform, founded in 2013, with a custody-first, full-stack offering spanning qualified custody, staking, prime brokerage, settlement, and stablecoin infrastructure.The company went public on Thursday, raising approximately $200 million in primary proceeds at $18 per share, implying a ~$2.1bn market cap.BitGo uses qualified custody as a wedge to onboard institutional clients, then increases monetization per dollar...
PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat THE BREAKDOWN Entering January, my view on crypto was still measured from a cyclical perspective, but tactically constructive. In my January 6th strategy note, I argued that while the broader setup for 2026 still pointed to a choppier first half and a more compelling accumulation opportunity later in the year, the near-term risk reward had begun to skew favorably. The key drivers behind...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:SPOT BUYING NOT TRANSLATING INTO PRICE STRENGTH: Strategy acquired approximately $3.4B OF BTC over the past two weeks, yet Bitcoin failed to sustain momentum above ~$95K, suggesting ample incremental supply and/or weakening marginal demand.REGULATORY OPTIMISM FADING: Senate market structure efforts remain alive but face meaningful industry pushback and procedural hurdles, making them unlikely to serve as a near-term catalyst.RATE EXPECTATIONS BECOMING A HEADWIND: Strong U.S. growth and rising uncertainty around future Fed leadership...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:CLARITY ACT MOMENTUM SLOWED: Senate Banking Committee markup was delayed, pushing timelines out and reducing near-term confidence, even though longer-term passage remains more likely than not.THE MAIN CONCERNS: Restrictions on stablecoin rewards and potential de facto barriers to tokenized equities are central industry objections, echoed by Coinbase leadership.LEGISLATIVE ODDS REMAIN CONSTRUCTIVE: While some in the industry see an 80–90% chance of passage, a more realistic (unscientific) probability is closer to...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:BTC BREAKS $94K: Today’s move was catalyzed by a cooler-than-expected CPI print, reinforced by strong spot demand, and amplified by a short squeeze after repeated failures at this level, with incremental support from improving regulatory sentiment following the release of the Clarity Act draft.ADDED CLARITY BOOST: The Clarity Act draft meaningfully improves visibility around self-custody, DeFi, wallet developers, and SEC vs. CFTC jurisdiction. While the stablecoin yield restrictions are...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:THE BAD: Large incremental BTC demand failed to move price, with Strategy’s $1.2bn purchase largely absorbed near ~$92k, signaling persistent overhead supply and explaining recent choppy price action.THE GOOD: U.S. flows into crypto re-emerged today, with a strong Coinbase premium and premium-to-NAV expansion across digital asset treasury companies.MY VIEW ON POWELL’S STATEMENT: Powell’s response reasserted Fed independence rather than signaling a tighter policy bias, preserving a data-dependent reaction function and...
Tactical Setup Remains Intact as the White House Engages in Quasi-QE and a Supreme Court Decision Nears
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:The administration’s directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200B of MBS reinforces a highly stimulative policy stance, functionally resembling fiscal-driven QE despite no direct Fed involvement.Markets are focused on a potential Supreme Court ruling on Emergency Power Act tariffs, with consensus expectations skewed toward a strike-down and elevated near-term policy uncertainty.My base case is a short-term positive crypto market response if the tariffs are...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:MSCI REMOVES A MAJOR DAT TAIL RISK by keeping Digital Asset Treasury Companies in its indices and avoiding up to ~$3bn in potential outflows, though the freeze on share count increases caps future index-driven inflows.THE NET IMPACT OF THE MSCI DECISION IS MODESTLY POSITIVE, as downside risk from forced selling is eliminated but forward-looking inflows via MSCI-tracking funds are reduced.MINER SELLING REMAINS A STRUCTURAL HEADWIND, with further confirmation...