Crypto Research

CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat _See commentary on the rebalance at the end of this note._ TACTICAL SETUP LOOKS CONSTRUCTIVE Sometimes, a simple calendar turn is all an asset class needs to fall back into favor with investors. In the weeks leading into year-end (following BTC’s rejection at ~$94k), I laid out the reasons it made sense to detach from crypto markets. We were...

DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Near-term conditions have improved as liquidity, flows, and market structure now support a tactical rally.Liquidity and macro signals are constructive, with rising base liquidity, a softer dollar on a lag, and tightening credit spreads.Flows are turning positive, led by ETF inflows, a rising Coinbase premium, and spot-led price action amid negative funding.Bitcoin has reclaimed the 50-day MA and is likely to retest the 200-day near $105K–$106K, with...

DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:VALUATIONS HAVE MEANINGFULLY COMPRESSED: The median P/E multiple across the top crypto applications has fallen from ~23x in late September to ~16x today.SELECT APPS ARE PROVING MORE RESILIENT: Some protocols have grown fees even as their multiples declined (SYRUP), highlighting differences in revenue cyclicality. A small number of names have actually re-rated higher (KMNO, SKY), reflecting optimism around forward-looking earnings.LIQUIDITY REMAINS EXTREMELY THIN: Spot volumes and order book depth are...

DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:STRATEGY DIVIDEND RISK IS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATED – Strategy’s $750M equity sale was used to build U.S. dollar reserves, now covering ~32 months of interest and dividend obligations. Concerns around forced Bitcoin sales to fund preferred dividends can likely be put to rest.CRYPTO CONTINUES TO UNDERPERFORM INTO YEAR-END – Bitcoin and broader crypto once again lagged equities and gold, consistent with typical Santa Rally dynamics in which investors sell losers...

DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:INFLATION COOLING FASTER THAN EXPECTED: CPI came in below expectations, and market-based measures suggest inflation expectations remain well anchored, increasing the likelihood the Fed cuts more than futures currently price.NEAR-TERM CRYPTO HEADWINDS PERSIST: Despite a post-CPI bounce, BTC retraced and remains under pressure due to unfavorable year-end flows and relative underperformance versus broader risk assets.MID-$70K BTC IS AN INTERESTING AREA: The ~$74–75K range aligns with the aggregate ETF cost basis...

Thank you to everyone who joined my annual outlook call today. Below are several high-level takeaways, along with the latest Core Strategy and Crypto Equity portfolios. Click here to download the presentation deck. THE HEADWINDSNEAR-TERM RISKS MOUNTING: Q1 risks to crypto include a potential government shutdown, renewed trade policy volatility, waning confidence in AI capex returns, and uncertainty around the Fed Chair transition, all of which could pressure markets currently...

DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:BTC WAS REJECTED AGAIN AT THE YEARLY OPEN (~$93.4K) as broader risk assets roll over, with crypto following and alts leading to the downside.DESPITE NOISE AROUND POLYMARKET FED CHAIR ODDS, SOFR FUTURES HAVE EDGED MODESTLY MORE DOVISH, suggesting this has not been a meaningful driver of recent price action.TAX-LOSS HARVESTING IS A KEY DRIVER OF ALTCOIN WEAKNESS. Assets that are negative YTD are seeing outsized selling, while the few...

DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Yesterday, the FOMC delivered a broadly dovish package that included a 25 bps cut, improved growth and inflation projections, and the start of balance sheet expansion through $40B per month in bill purchases, which came in well above expectations and supports liquidity-sensitive assets.Market pricing remains far less dovish than the Fed’s outlier projections. There is room for rates to reprice lower if Hassett becomes Fed Chair and...

DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Crypto rallied strongly, with ETH and SOL outperforming, and BTC and ETH/BTC testing their respective yearly open levels. U.S. spot demand (likely driven by DATs) supported the move, reflected in notable Coinbase premiums. Tomorrow’s FOMC includes a widely expected 25 bp cut, but the key catalysts will be information on the hawk/dove divide and balance sheet guidance. While historical patterns suggest near-term chop after pre-FOMC strength, two-week returns post-FOMC tend...

DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:ETH/BTC continues to show signs of bottoming alongside persistent small-cap tech strength.MSTR surprised the market with nearly $1B in BTC purchases, funded by roughly $963M of equity and preferred issuance. The stock held up well despite the supply, signaling strong demand and reinforcing the idea that last week’s capitulation may have marked a local low.mNAV multiples are expanding again, suggesting capital is beginning to return to the...

DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Positioning has reset materially with oversold BTC readings, capitulation in IBIT and MSTR, negative funding and declining open interest, improving U.S. spot demand, and early signs of a turn in ETF and stablecoin flow trends.Macro and liquidity conditions are shifting in a supportive direction as Fed net liquidity bottoms, high-yield spreads stabilize, the dollar weakens, and small-cap tech outperforms, creating a backdrop that historically favors BTC and...