Crypto Research
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MARKET UPDATE U.S. EQUITIES ARE RELATIVELY FLAT ON THE FINAL DAY OF TRADING FOR AUGUST, WITH THE ^SPX 0.70% OSCILLATING AROUND $5,600 AND THE NDQ TRADING NEAR $19,400. Rates and the dollar are gaining today despite PCE and Consumer Confidence data providing more assurance that inflation is receding. Crypto is underperforming, with BTC -1.79% falling to $58.5k and ETH -0.99% at $2,450, as ETF flows and spot volumes have been muted this week....
Jackson Hole Eliminates “Plane Climbing” Scenario for Crypto, Historical Data Suggests Volumes Bottom This Week
In this week’s video, we discuss the recent lack of spot market volumes and how historical data indicates that volumes are likely to bottom out this week. We also explore why the outcome of Jackson Hole significantly reduces the likelihood of a cyclical downturn for crypto in the near term. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC -1.79%
LOWER VOLUMES PERSIST Earlier this week, we witnessed approximately $2B in open interest being unwound within a matter of hours—a significant forced deleveraging event for an otherwise uneventful Tuesday, lacking a clear catalyst. In our view, the selloff was largely technical and indicative of the negative seasonality we've been discussing recently. To backtrack, Monday and Tuesday followed a dovish Fed pivot at Jackson Hole, sparking a sharp rally in soft-landing...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE In stark contrast to the recent BLS job number revisions, the government revised its Q2 GDP estimate higher this morning to 3%, leading to a jump in rates and the DXY. However, this data also apparently boosted confidence in the soft landing trade, as rate-sensitive indices like IWM are outpacing ^SPX 0.70% and QQQ 0.78% . Chip-adjacent stocks are also performing well, spurred by another earnings beat from NVDA 2.96% , benefiting...
MARKET UPDATE U.S. EQUITIES ARE DECLINING AHEAD OF NVIDIA EARNINGS LATER TODAY, WITH THE SPY 0.70% DECREASING TO $558.53, WHILE THE NVIDIA-HEAVY QQQ 0.78% HAS DROPPED TO $472.20. The crypto market has suffered from large amounts of liquidations over the last 24 hours, totaling over $355 million as yesterday evening, BTC -1.79% fell swiftly from $62k down to $58k while ETH -0.99% made a similar move, falling from $2.6k to $2.4k in less than...
In today's video, we analyze recent constructive flows data, explore the downside volatility seen after the US market close, discuss the MKR rebrand, and examine how HPC miners could benefit from an expected NVDA earnings beat. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC -1.79% MKR -2.57%
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE Despite a $200 million inflow into BTC ETFs yesterday, crypto prices have declined over the past 24 hours. BTC -1.79% has fallen back below $62K, ETH -0.99% is under $2,600, and SOL -0.67% is just below $155. Only a few coins are in the green today, including TON -0.22% , rebounding from its recent selloff, MKR -2.57% , following its major rebrand announcement, and STX -4.18% , likely benefiting from the ongoing activation of the Nakamoto...
MARKET UPDATE CRYPTO MARKETS EXTENDED LAST WEEK’S RALLY OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH BTC -1.79% BRIEFLY RISING ABOVE $65K AND ETH -0.99% ABOVE $2.8K. They have trimmed some of their gains, with Bitcoin trading at $63.3k and Ethereum slightly above $2.7k. AI-related tokens have been outperforming ahead of Nvidia earnings set for this Wednesday. FET 0.55% , RNDR, and AKT -1.02% have gained 69%, 38%, and 25%, respectively over the last seven days. U.S. equities are...
WEEKLY RECAP Weekly funding showed a slight decrease, falling from $211 million to $199 million, while the total deal count increased 37% from 19 deals to 26. Infrastructure was the leading category, totaling $156 million in funding across 12 deals and making up over three-quarters of the total amount. DeFi was the second leading category, with $26 million in funding, including SatLayer, a Bitcoin restaking solution similar to EigenLayer. This...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE Risk assets are surging following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish pivot at Jackson Hole, signaling a shift in policy aimed at addressing potential weaknesses in the job market through rate cuts. The DXY has dropped significantly, reaching a new year-to-date low and approaching the 100 mark. Cryptoassets are rallying, with BTC -1.79% nearing $62,000 as it works to break through its 50-day moving average, which has provided significant...
In today's video, we explain why the recent order book imbalance appears to have cleared, discuss the potential for a “Trump Premium” to be priced back into markets soon, and highlight why BTC miners with HPC capacity present an attractive near-term risk/reward opportunity. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC -1.79%
GOVERNMENT SELLING SEEMS TO BE COMPLETE Last week, we highlighted the negative seasonality from mid-August through September but emphasized that macro trends and identifiable crypto-specific factors should take precedence in assessing risk. _Source: TradingView, Fundstrat_ Since last week’s CPI print, conditions have been favorable for crypto – yields and the DXY have fallen in a non-recessionary manner (more Goldilocks than risk-off), and rate-sensitive assets like IWM and RSP have rallied....