Crypto Research
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EMPYREAL OVERVIEW Empyreal provides developers with a software development kit (SDK) to make crypto programming easier and more effective. EMP hopes to bridge the gap between web2 and web3 developers and remove some of the nuances of blockchain-centric languages like Solidity. The EmpyrealSDK takes a modular approach, allowing developers to pick and choose which toolkits they want to integrate into their products, supporting full customization. Each module encapsulates a different...
CORE STRATEGY Our base case assumes that the macro environment will remain accommodative for crypto through year-end. However, in light of recent market action, we remain alert for signs of a local top (not a cycle top). That said, it is difficult to justify a risk-averse stance at this stage and think it is right to lean into this altcoin rally. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat STRONG DOLLAR +...
Today's employment numbers broadly met investor expectations, placating a nervous market. Risk assets rallied, aligning with our view that yesterday's de-risking would not persist through today. Yields continued their downward trajectory, and Fed funds futures also declined, reflecting the market's adherence to the Fed's dovish messaging. Yields Falling: Source: TradingView Fed Funds Futures Showing More Cuts: Source: TradingView Oil prices nearing YTD lows likely assisted in alleviating near-term concerns about...
WEEKLY RECAP Crypto funding rose 60% week-over-week from $145 million to $232 million, while total deal count decreased 7% from 29 to 27. CeFi was the leading funding category, totaling $145 million across three deals and comprising 63% of all funding. The total was bolstered by Public’s $130 Series D round, representing only the second Series D round in 2024. Although CeFi has been a laggard category all year, three...
INDICATIONS OF FROTH Given the violent nature of the past month’s rally, we have been vigilant for signs of a local top. It would be disingenuous to claim that some qualitative "top signals" are not flashing right now. XRP—which we noted as a possible election trade back in October—with only 1–2k daily active addresses (vs ETH's over 400k, source: Artemis), is ripping toward new highs while influencers take to TikTok...
TURNING CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC There is a lot of pain in the ETHBTC chart. It peaked in December 2021 and, save for several brief rallies, has been on a downwards slope ever since. It peaked at just under 0.09 and currently trades around 0.038. Source: TradingView Fortunately, we have anchored most of our attention on BTC and SOL this cycle, as BTC has continued to lead the market in a generally...