Crypto Research
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OUR VERDICT: POWELL NAILED IT Yesterday, Powell did exactly what risk assets wanted him to do—their actions were dovish, with a 50-bps cut and guidance for two more by year-end, but their economic commentary remained reassuring. Many bears point to this as hawkish, and since it's hawkish, it's implicitly bad for risk assets (including crypto). In our view, if Powell had taken a significantly more dovish stance than he did,...
MARKET UPDATE Yesterday’s FOMC meeting resulted in the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates by 50 bps, and Fed Chair Powell striking an optimistic tone about the state of the U.S. economy. Risk assets are rallying today, with crypto leading the charge. BTC 4.43% has gained to $63.7k and ETH 9.45% is approaching $2,500. Altcoins are seeing outsized rallies, with TIA 10.11% and DYM 15.35% outperforming, with both gaining over 14% today. APT -16.59% has similarly...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE Crypto assets are trading lower ahead of today's crucial FOMC press conference, with BTC 4.43% dipping back below $60,000, ETH 9.45% falling under $2,300, and SOL 9.20% down to $127. The only token among the top 50 in the green is SUI 3.00% , following its USDC 0.00% launch announcement. Major equity indices are also in the red after the release of relatively strong housing data this morning, which is contributing to growing...
MARKET UPDATE Crypto has gained sharply ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, at which the Fed is expected to begin its easing cycle. There is still uncertainty on the magnitude of the first rate cut, with markets pricing a 61% probability of 50bps as of this morning. BTC 4.43% has risen from $58k to $61k and ETH 9.45% has risen from the high $2,200s to $2,370. SUI 3.00% is outperforming today following news that...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE The crypto market has moved lower over the past 24 hours, with BTC 4.43% dropping back near the $58k level, ETH 9.45% just below $2,300, and SOL 9.20% once again testing the $130 mark. Yields have started the week lower ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting, where investors are currently anticipating a 50 bps rate cut, according to the Fed funds futures market. Equities started the morning broadly in the...
WEEKLY RECAP Funding activity bounced back from last week’s muted totals, with total funding rising 44% from $67 million to $96 million and deal count increasing 56% from 16 to 25. DeFi was the leading category from both a fundraising and deal count perspective, raising $44 million across 11 deals. This week's largest deal was a DeFi investment – Huma Finance raised $28 million in a Series A round to...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE The most notable market development over the past 24 hours has been the sharp increase in rate cut probabilities for next week’s FOMC meeting. After falling to just a 14% likelihood of a 50bps cut, the odds jumped to over 40% in after-hours trading following a large trade betting on two cuts. This shift may be linked to the optimism around the potential for two cuts conveyed...
INITIAL THESIS – SENATE MORE IMPORTANT THAN MANY RECOGNIZE This week, we witnessed what was the first – and potentially final – presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Anticipation for this event was high, with the public initially favoring Trump, as reflected in prediction markets. This preference was largely attributed to Harris's lackluster debate track record. However, the dynamics shifted during the debate itself, with reactions in prediction...
MARKET UPDATE August PPI data was released this morning, with both MoM Core and Headline readings coming in slightly above expectations, sparking a rally in rates and gold and likely confirming only 25bps of rate cuts next week. Equities are gaining following the data, with the SPY 0.44% and QQQ 0.22% both gaining by more than 0.50%. Crypto is mostly higher, with total crypto market cap gaining 1.13%. BTC 4.43% is trading just...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE CPI came in slightly above market expectations, primarily driven by persistent shelter costs, though these were partially offset by deflationary energy prices. As a result, rate cut expectations for next week’s FOMC meeting have dropped to 25 basis points. Following the CPI release, crypto markets, along with other risk assets, initially sold off as the market digested the data. However, prices have since rebounded, with BTC 4.43% trading...