Crypto Research
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CORE STRATEGY Source: TradingView, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat CONTEXT FOR THIS WEEK IS IMPORTANT It was a tough week for crypto. BTC continued to grind lower while alts were hit hard, the result of several overlapping headwinds.The weakness started last Friday into monthly options expiry and was followed by a sharp leverage wipe on Sunday. Thin liquidity, combined with capital chasing new coins such as ASTER and...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Growth surprises to the upside: Durable goods (+2.9% vs –0.5% est.) and GDP revision (3.8% vs 3.3% est.) show stronger growth. Yields rose and risk assets fell on concerns of a hawkish Fed. Contrary to price action, this reinforces my Q4 view.Fed cares more about labor: Two cuts are still priced for this calendar year, with the Fed balancing inflation and labor risks. A growth-positive backdrop with...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:CRYPTO UNDERPERFORMANCE CONTINUES: Altcoins remain weak, and the Coinbase–Binance BTC spread remains stuck in discount territory since mid-August, reflecting persistent U.S. selling.BEARISH SENTIMENT RISING: Option skew across maturities shows puts priced at their richest (on a relative basis) since the March/April tariff drawdown, highlighting defensive positioning.LIQUIDITY HEADWINDS FADING: The Treasury General Account refill has weighed on net liquidity, but with the TGA nearly full, this drag should soon subside.SEASONALITY AND...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:LIQUIDATIONS: The crypto market was hit with $1.5B in long liquidations as thin weekend liquidity and stretched positioning drove a sharp deleveraging. While short-term weakness may persist, our Q4 outlook remains intact.NVIDIA–OPENAI PARTNERSHIP: Nvidia’s $100B investment into OpenAI underscores the durability of the AI CapEx cycle. This is a direct tailwind for miners and hybrid crypto equities reallocating infrastructure toward AI/HPC compute, with Galaxy and others well-positioned to benefit...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:FOMC CONFIRMS 2H THESIS: Policy remains dovish, easing continues into above-trend inflation and solid growth.MARKET REACTION: Growth optimism is back in play with the yield curve steepening and small caps outperforming. Today’s pullback looks like profit-taking with some options expiry noise.EQUITIES VS. CRYPTO: Tech rally driven by AI and data center hype. “Miners” in our crypto equity basket (IREN, WULF, CIFR) continue to outperform.MNAVS EXPANDING: Major DAT mNAV multiples have moved...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Retail sales beat expectations, reinforcing the setup of monetary policy easing into a solid economy.Yield curve steepening points to growth optimism. Crypto rallied with BTC leading and ETH lagging, though mNAV expansion in ETH DATs suggests it could play catch-up in the days ahead.Dollar weakness remains a key tailwind, DXY breaking a 15-year trendline would be significant.BNB TRADE IDEA: Reports of easing DOJ oversight could pave the way...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:HYPERLIQUID GAINING “MAJOR” STATUS: Strong user growth, $1.3B in annualized buybacks, and an 11% token holder yield position HYPE as this cycle’s leading candidate for the next “major.”ANALOG GOLD CONTINUES TO RUN: Gold hit another all-time high, while the real 10-year yield closed at its lowest since Oct ’24, reinforcing a constructive backdrop for Bitcoin and crypto into Q4.BASE TOKEN CATALYST: Coinbase confirmed it is exploring a Base token. Near...
Two New Additions to the Crypto Equities Basket, Positioned for TradFi Adoption of the Next Major (Core Strategy Rebalance)
CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat ADDING: HYPE CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat ADDING: HYPD, SONN ADDING HYPD & SONN TO EQUITIES BASKET AS HYPE CARVES A PATH TO $100 Every cycle, a new player emerges as the next “major.” In 2017, it was ETH. In 2021, it was SOL. In 2025, it is HYPE. Despite being only a few quarters old, HYPE has quickly established itself as a token...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Nasdaq moving into tokenized equities reinforces tokenization as a secular trend.World (WLD) is building a universal digital identity layer, a use case with a large TAM and clear value proposition.Solana DAT inflows are substantial enough to warrant an increased allocation despite macro uncertainties. DISCLOSURE: I am an investor in the private round for both BMNR and OCTO. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC -2.01% SOL -1.42%
MARKET SURVEY In partnership with the Medici Network, we are conducting a client survey on DATs, ETFs, and broader sentiment. Aggregated results will be shared with clients. The survey takes ~5 minutes, and broader participation will make the insights more valuable. Thank you in advance for your participation. CLICK HERE TO COMPLETE THE SURVEY. OUR QUICK TAKE ON THE CRYPTO MARKET:Gold’s push to all-time highs is a constructive signal for BTC,...
AUGUST RECAP Although funding fell approximately 15% from July’s total, August funding remained strong, totaling $820 million across 92 deals. Year-to-date funding is significantly ahead of 2024’s pace, reaching $7.5 billion thus far compared to $8.5 billion for all of 2024. August’s funding was heavily concentrated in Infrastructure, DeFi, and CeFi, which represented 93% of total funding and 91% of deal count. It was a strong month for Series B...