Crypto Research
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In today’s update, we break down crypto’s underperformance relative to equities, highlighting a key correlation rollover that has historically signaled major market turning points. While it’s too early to turn outright bearish, the setup warrants close attention. We also cover the latest legal developments in the U.S. trade war, implications for macro positioning, and why Ethereum remains a relative bright spot despite Bitcoin’s recent weakness. TICKERS IN...
Markets rebounded over the weekend after Trump signaled progress on EU trade talks, helping crypto regain its footing. In today’s update, we break down the sovereign bond rally sparked by Japan’s issuance shift, highlight a new corporate Bitcoin buyer, and explore why ETH may be setting up for further outperformance. We also dive into why crypto underperformed equities during the U.S. session. Plus, a look at Bitcoin’s latest golden cross...
Unlike in Q1/early Q2, today’s trade news doesn’t yet warrant a more cautious stance. Trump’s surprise call for 50% EU tariffs briefly pressured crypto, but risk gauges remained calm, and Bitcoin held up relatively well. Strength in high-yield credit, a steady VIX, a firm SOL/BTC ratio, and a fresh Bitcoin golden cross all suggest bulls are still in control. With deficits back in focus and gold rallying, the macro backdrop...
CORE STRATEGY Crypto continues to benefit from supportive conditions, and the near-term setup favors continuation. A new golden cross has been triggered for BTC, with post-2020 signals showing an 83% 90-day win rate and a 19% median return. FTX creditor repayments, totaling $5 billion, are underway and may recycle capital back into crypto markets, boosting risk appetite. Flows remain strong. ETF demand is steady, the Coinbase premium persists, CME basis...
Bitcoin keeps climbing as ETF inflows stay strong, the Coinbase premium holds, and CME basis widens. A single whale on Hyperliquid is riding a 40× long worth $830 million with a $100k liquidation line, a pocket of high leverage in an otherwise tame market. With spot ETF allocations growing and the Genius stablecoin bill moving toward a full Senate vote after the Memorial Day recess, the backdrop remains bullish. https://vimeo....
Bitcoin just logged a stealth all-time high weekly close, and ETH is showing signs of relative strength. In this video, we explore the growing “buy-the-dip” mentality, Abraxas Capital’s ETH accumulation, and what low funding rates and volatilities say about market positioning. We also break down the renewed optimism around the Senate’s stablecoin bill and why it could unlock broader crypto legislation. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC 0.87%
Funding Rates Suggest an Unpopular BTC Rally, ETH Has More Room to Run (Core Strategy Rebalance)
CORE STRATEGY While the market has repriced quite substantially to reflect optimism over trade, we believe further upside could come from ensuing changes in tax and regulatory policy. In the House’s latest bill, more than $4 trillion in tax cuts have been proposed, with just $1.5 trillion in spending reductions. This implies continued fiscal expansion, which is stimulative and, all else equal, positive for crypto. Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CHANGES: INCREASING...
CORE STRATEGY Source: TradingView, Fundstrat While there is no need to “panic chase,” ETH likely begins trading better from here. We should start considering ETH beta names to add if Bessent’s meeting with China this weekend results in a positive outcome. The immediate-term risk/reward is certainly less attractive after BTC’s rally to $103,000 and strong follow-through from altcoins this week, but there are legitimate signs pointing to the U.S. reaching...
APRIL RECAP Monthly funding rose 31% from $840 million in March to $1.1 billion in April despite the deal count falling 25% from 106 to 80. April represented the highest monthly funding total going back to November 2022, helped by two nine-figure deals from Auradine and ZenMEV, representing about 27% of total funding. Infrastructure was the leading category, accumulating $639 million in funding across 41 deals, representing over half of...