Crypto Research
19 Results
WHAT ARE THE RISKS? Following March lows, the global macro picture has improved, and crypto prices have risen by nearly 55% in tandem. Our calls for bullishness near the market bottom came with the recognition of current uncertainties at the time, but our caution in several of those areas has since diminished. But risks remain and we’re are keeping an eye on them. In terms of market structure: (1) crypto...
How should investors frame crypto’s drivers and was the recent move a justified fundamental deterioration or an opportunity? 1. EMERGING MARKET PLAY Crypto market growth resembles that of an emerging market economy that’s recently opened to the outside world seeing new capital inflows and growth. Remember, that like all emerging markets, it is influenced by macro external forces and shocks, and it is still early innings yet and idiosyncratic boom/bust...
In the current market environment, with the sharp price volatility seen in Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrencies generally in the past 12 months, it’s fair for investors to ask, “What’s going on?” While follow on contagion and spillover from the global economic chaos is the easiest answer, I think that the situation deserves a closer look, as there might be market nuances worth examining in detail. I see a number of...
March 6 _Fair Value: $13,000-$15,0000 _ If ever the view that “crypto is a macro hedge” is to be put to the test, then 2020 would seem to be that time. Thanks to the fear and loathing created by the outbreak of the coronavirus, the ripple effects of COVID-19, as it’s known, is far reaching. We are seeing pure havoc in fixed income markets (the yield on the U.S. Treasury...
January 29, 2020 One of the biggest asset class surprises last year was the 92% gain in Bitcoin (BTC). Twelve months ago, few besides our shop would have credited such an outcome. So far in 2020 the cryptocurrency is continuing to roar ahead. Though it’s early in the year, BTC is up 26% YTD, already the best showing of any major asset class, and building on that big 2019 move....
By Thomas J. Lee, May 15, 2019 The 2018 crypto bear market was more painful than any other prior crypto downturn because many of those hurt were retail investors new to the asset class. That 85% crushing decline not only wiped out investor capital, but sentimentwise left many of those newbies thinking Bitcoin and crypto broadly were declining into oblivion. As bad as 2018 has been, 2019 has seen a...
April 29, 2019 Is crypto-currency back? It’s a legitimate question given the across the board huge drops seen among crypto-currencies in 2018. There was blood on the street. This year, however, they seem to be coming back from the dead. Legitimate or is this a zombie bear trap? There are reasons to be cheerful, however. For one thing, there remains a fairly high level of skepticism and apathy towards the...