Crypto Research
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March 6 _Fair Value: $13,000-$15,0000 _ If ever the view that “crypto is a macro hedge” is to be put to the test, then 2020 would seem to be that time. Thanks to the fear and loathing created by the outbreak of the coronavirus, the ripple effects of COVID-19, as it’s known, is far reaching. We are seeing pure havoc in fixed income markets (the yield on the U.S. Treasury...
SUMMARY MARKET ANALYSIS:Crypto markets rebounded modestly this week and remain the best performing asset class YTD. PORTFOLIO STRATEGY:Crypto Emerging Markets are influenced by broader financial conditions but its idiosyncratic drivers and macro market cycle mater most long term. WINNERS & LOSERSWinner: Tron's founder Justin Sun who executed a hostel takeover of Steem's decentralized social media network.Loser: Bitmex after the FCA issued a notice that the firm has been operating in...
BTC’S LONG-TERM PROFILE REMAINS POSITIVE Despite BTC’s volatile swings through 2018 into 2020, the longer-term chart profile remains positive with BTC in narrowing consolidation above its long-term uptrend. Granted, a series of lower highs (12/2018, 06/2019, 2019, 02/2020) remains in place and break below BTC’s 2015-2018 uptrend (7.7-8K) would be an obvious technical concern/problem. However, a break has yet to develop and a move above the 10-11K resistance band would...
SUMMARY MARKET STRATEGY:Crypto markets had a tough week as global risky assets sold off on coronavirus fears but crypto investors shouldn't panic. WINNERS & LOSERS:Winner: Argon's Tim Draper investment may hold promise for future crypto legal governance.Loser: Ripple's illegal security lawsuit claims may mean potential upside isn't justified by regulatory risks. WEEKLY RANT:Why the announcement "Startup Tokenizes $2.2B in Commercial Real Estate Through Polymath" makes me cringe. FINANCING ACTIVITY:Copper. co...
FUNDSTRAT CRYPTO FX INDICES: A-D LINES ARE IN CONFIRMED UPTRENDS WITH MID-CAP CONTINUING TO LEAD Cryptocurrency breadth, as measured by the Fundstrat FS CryptoFX Advance-Decline lines continue to build positively across the large-cap (FX10), mid-cap (FX40) and small-cap (FX 250) indices. The performance of the FS CryptoFX40 Mid-cap index versus the FX10 Large-cap index is particularly noteworthy, having established a series of higher highs confirming a longer-term upside trend reversal....
January 29, 2020 One of the biggest asset class surprises last year was the 92% gain in Bitcoin (BTC). Twelve months ago, few besides our shop would have credited such an outcome. So far in 2020 the cryptocurrency is continuing to roar ahead. Though it’s early in the year, BTC is up 26% YTD, already the best showing of any major asset class, and building on that big 2019 move....
WEEKLY RECAP...Bakkt futures hit ATH, will launch options contracts on 12/9/19Is quantum computing a threat to BTC?Several hurdles expected to improve by year end; still risk-off for BTC CENTER STORY 1. BAKKT FUTURES JUST NEEDED A LITTLE TIME... OPTIONS LAUNCH COMING NEXT BAKKT FUTURES DAILY TRADING VOLUME HAS TAKEN OFF. WAS MEDIA TOO QUICK TO JUDGE? WOULDN'T BE FIRST TIME. Variations of "Bakkt futures volume has been disappointing" have been a...
WEEKLY RECAP...Libra Association dropouts are avoiding regulatory spotlightThe BTC rich are getting richerBTC's 4-hour RSI becoming oversold as BTC tests key 7.7K support CENTER STORY 1. LIBRA MEMBERSHIP IS NOT FOR THE FAINT OF HEART NO ONE KNOWS FOR SURE WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH LIBRA. BUT WE DO KNOW DROPOUTS HAVE RETURNED TO "BUSINESS AS USUAL." The Libra Association had their inaugural meeting on Monday, October 14th. There are 21...