Crypto Research
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SMALL CAP BREAKOUT A POSITIVE INDICATOR FOR BTC It is a common refrain among passive industry observers that BTC is strongly correlated with large-cap tech stocks, leading some to view BTC as a quasi-leveraged version of QQQ. However, we think this perspective is limiting. If you were to rely on QQQ as a barometer for crypto market conditions, you would experience several periods of underperformance over the course of a...
WEEKLY RECAP Q4 has represented the least funded quarter in each of the past two years, and two weeks into this year, the trend is on pace to remain intact. The first week of the fourth quarter was one of the least funded weeks all year, with just $11 million raised across eight deals. Although not overly impressive, funding rebounded this week to $120 million across 21 deals. Concentration in...
Storm-Driven Claims, Political Shifts, and Seasonality Point to Bullish Crypto Setup for Late October
MARKET INCREASES PROBABILITY OF 'NO LANDING' Over the past week, a series of stronger-than-expected economic data releases have significantly impacted market sentiment:ROBUST ISM SERVICES PMI: The ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 54.9, significantly above the forecasted 51.7.STRONG NON-FARM PAYROLLS (NFP): The economy added 254,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 140,000.FOMC MINUTES INDICATE DIVERGENCE: The FOMC minutes revealed non-consensus at the September meeting regarding whether to cut rates by...
In today's video, we explore why the post-NFP market setup is encouraging for crypto, how profit-taking in Chinese equities could serve as a tailwind for BNB, and why MSTR's divergence from BTC could lead to $900 million in BTC inflows in the near term. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC 1.02%
Crypto Receives a Boost from Strong Jobs Print, WULF Sells Hash Rate to Expand AI Capabilities
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE The crypto market is moving higher today, lifted by stronger-than-expected jobs numbers. The BLS reported 254k jobs added last month, far exceeding the market estimate of 140k, while August's figures were revised up from 142k to 159k. The unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1% from 4.2%. In response, rates rallied, the DXY spiked, and the futures market largely priced out the possibility of a 50 bps rate...
CME Basis Suggests We Are Near a Tradable Low, Plus Some Thoughts on Positioning Ahead of the Election
A ROUGH STRETCH AMID RISING UNCERTAINTY SKEWS RISKS TO THE UPSIDE The past five trading days have been challenging for the crypto market, marked by significant uncertainty stemming from various geopolitical and economic events. Among the notable sources of market distress are:GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS: Iran’s missile attack on Israel has led to heightened anticipation of an Israeli response, with oil prices spiking to $74.NATURAL DISASTERS: A devastating hurricane in the Southeast...
MARKET UPDATE Crypto is broadly lower today as geopolitical conflict continues to weigh on risk assets, with BTC 1.02% falling to $60k and ETH 8.47% approaching the low $2,300s. Aptos (APT 1.48% ) is one of the few gainers in the top 100 tokens as they have strengthened their presence in Japan via an acquisition of HashPalette, a Japanese NFT service provider and developer of Palette Chain. AAVE 7.31% is also showing slight gains following...