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Skeptical That “The Lows” Are In, but Risk/Reward Has Improved, Deploying Some Dry Powder (Portfolio Rebalance)
IMPORTANT NOTICE: I will be out of the office through Friday and will publish selectively if warranted by market conditions. PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat _NOTE: SEE THE END OF THIS NOTE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE LATEST REBALANCE._ STOPS GET HUNTED The crypto selloff accelerated throughout the weekend, with BTC falling to ~$74k, ETH to ~$2,150, and SOL to ~$96. 24-hour liquidations across perpetual futures markets reached...
PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat WARSH IS FED CHAIR NOMINEE Reports late Thursday afternoon indicated that the White House was preparing to support Kevin Warsh as the nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair. Warsh surged to over 90% probability on Polymarket around 7:00 p.m. on Thursday, overtaking Rick Rieder. On Friday morning, President Trump announced via Truth Social that he was moving forward with Warsh as his...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:HIP-3 builder-deployed perpetuals are structurally expanding Hyperliquid’s addressable market. Rapid growth in non-crypto, exogenous assets, particularly commodities, points to an evolution beyond a pure crypto venue toward broader on-chain market infrastructure.Recent price action likely reflects some degree of re-rating. As capital rotates into metals and other macro-sensitive assets, investors appear to be reassessing HYPE as exposure to cross-asset speculation rather than solely as a high-beta crypto proxy.Dollar...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:The January tactical setup was valid and initially confirmed, with BTC breaking key resistance in a spot-led move supported by improving liquidity, constructive credit, and early flow stabilizationUpside momentum stalled at the point where follow-through mattered most, as even large, price-insensitive spot buying failed to extend the rally, signaling weakening market structureMacro and liquidity conditions shifted from tailwinds to constraints, with rising rate expectations, renewed JGB volatility,...
PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat _Note: Changes to both portfolios are discussed at the end of this note._ THE BREAKDOWN Entering January, my view on crypto remained measured from a medium-term perspective but tactically constructive. In my January 6th strategy note, I argued that while the broader setup for 2026 still pointed to a choppier first half and a more compelling accumulation opportunity later in the year, the...
PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat EXECUTIVE SUMMARYBitGo is a cycle-tested institutional crypto infrastructure platform, founded in 2013, with a custody-first, full-stack offering spanning qualified custody, staking, prime brokerage, settlement, and stablecoin infrastructure.The company went public on Thursday, raising approximately $200 million in primary proceeds at $18 per share, implying a ~$2.1bn market cap.BitGo uses qualified custody as a wedge to onboard institutional clients, then increases monetization per dollar...
PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat THE BREAKDOWN Entering January, my view on crypto was still measured from a cyclical perspective, but tactically constructive. In my January 6th strategy note, I argued that while the broader setup for 2026 still pointed to a choppier first half and a more compelling accumulation opportunity later in the year, the near-term risk reward had begun to skew favorably. The key drivers behind...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:SPOT BUYING NOT TRANSLATING INTO PRICE STRENGTH: Strategy acquired approximately $3.4B OF BTC over the past two weeks, yet Bitcoin failed to sustain momentum above ~$95K, suggesting ample incremental supply and/or weakening marginal demand.REGULATORY OPTIMISM FADING: Senate market structure efforts remain alive but face meaningful industry pushback and procedural hurdles, making them unlikely to serve as a near-term catalyst.RATE EXPECTATIONS BECOMING A HEADWIND: Strong U.S. growth and rising uncertainty around future Fed leadership...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:CLARITY ACT MOMENTUM SLOWED: Senate Banking Committee markup was delayed, pushing timelines out and reducing near-term confidence, even though longer-term passage remains more likely than not.THE MAIN CONCERNS: Restrictions on stablecoin rewards and potential de facto barriers to tokenized equities are central industry objections, echoed by Coinbase leadership.LEGISLATIVE ODDS REMAIN CONSTRUCTIVE: While some in the industry see an 80–90% chance of passage, a more realistic (unscientific) probability is closer to...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:BTC BREAKS $94K: Today’s move was catalyzed by a cooler-than-expected CPI print, reinforced by strong spot demand, and amplified by a short squeeze after repeated failures at this level, with incremental support from improving regulatory sentiment following the release of the Clarity Act draft.ADDED CLARITY BOOST: The Clarity Act draft meaningfully improves visibility around self-custody, DeFi, wallet developers, and SEC vs. CFTC jurisdiction. While the stablecoin yield restrictions are...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:THE BAD: Large incremental BTC demand failed to move price, with Strategy’s $1.2bn purchase largely absorbed near ~$92k, signaling persistent overhead supply and explaining recent choppy price action.THE GOOD: U.S. flows into crypto re-emerged today, with a strong Coinbase premium and premium-to-NAV expansion across digital asset treasury companies.MY VIEW ON POWELL’S STATEMENT: Powell’s response reasserted Fed independence rather than signaling a tighter policy bias, preserving a data-dependent reaction function and...