Zooming Out

Recently, we have been quite cautious about cryptoasset prices in the immediate term, recommending that investors hedge to the downside. We still think this is appropriate given the relentless hawkish signaling from the Fed and lack of conclusive softening economic data. While we believe there are signs of inflation turning over, we find it difficult to rationalize anyone with near-term liquidity needs to bet the farm on cryptoassets.

However, we want to take some time today to look at a few variables that demonstrate that if one’s investment time horizon is greater than 1-2 months, now is a great time to start allocating size to bitcoin.

Fiat Stuff

This week we had several companies issue weaker guidance. While many are concerned about demand destruction negatively affecting the real domestic economy, the major companies that revised their expectations (Microsoft, Salesforce) did so due to the dollar’s strength ($DXY). Despite our long-term view that fiat currencies are structurally inferior to bitcoin, the current macro landscape has caused many investors to rush to the greenback.