The Rollercoaster Ride Continues
Weekly Recap
The global crypto market continues to exhibit a range-bound choppiness, waxing and waning on the latest headlines. We saw $ETH and $BTC start the week above the $43k level after benefitting immensely from Russian sanctions and the narratives surrounding them.
Since then, markets have retreated as commodity prices skyrocket – oil hit $130 per barrel, wheat prices reached a 14-year high, and a metal exchange had to roll back transactions and limit trading because nickel prices were getting out of hand.
Such price action had many in traditional markets beating the “stagflation” drum, thus causing equities and cryptoassets to flounder.
Bitcoin caught a bid briefly on Tuesday evening following the leak of President Biden’s Executive Order on crypto, which had a surprisingly optimistic tone (more on this below) but is once again finding it to be a challenge to remain above the $40k level.
This choppiness is directly in line with what we had forecasted for the first half of this year in our Annual Outlook, and presently, few signs are pointing to any imminent breakout from this pattern.
Reports you may have missed
BTC AS A POSSIBLE STRATEGIC RESERVE Last week, we discussed the rising political tailwinds affecting crypto. Despite events earlier in the year that might have suggested a changed stance from the Democratic Party, the political divide over the issue has grown stronger. The GOP has become the party that is undoubtedly more favorable to the industry. The attempted assassination of former President Trump, juxtaposed against a Democratic Party seemingly in...
Gox Wallet Movements Still Present a Risk, But Macro & Politics Keeps Us Allocated Here (Core Strategy Rebalance)
DISCUSSING THE SUPPLY CONCERNS On balance, macro conditions have moved in our favor thus far in early Q3. We have received soft jobs numbers and softer ISM reports, and cooler inflation figures, which have sent rates and the DXY lower. Unfortunately, the mere reveal of imminent sales from the German BKA and the solidification of the Mt. Gox disbursement timeline were not enough to put a bottom in for bitcoin....
LESSONS FROM OPEC We have witnessed a significant market panic partially related to formerly locked BTC hitting the order books. The major sources of supply include:Mt. Gox – 141,686 BTCUS Government – 8,100 BTCGerman Government – 50,000 BTC At current prices, this would equate to over $12 billion in supply. This threat, combined with an inhospitable macro backdrop (rising DXY, higher rate expectations, hawkish Fed), has brought BTC down to...
LDO Risk/Reward Looks Good Here, Immediate-term Macro Picture Still Uncertain (Core Strategy Rebalance)
FLOWS AND SENTIMENT STILL SUBDUED Last week, we received a better-than-expected CPI print, but the DXY continued to move higher due to global weakness and a hawkish Fed. We discussed the risks appearing in the metrics we use to gauge sentiment and flows. The overall lack of follow-through in the crypto market was evident. Volumes, net ETP flows, the Coinbase discount, stablecoin market cap trend, and search interest for key...
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