Welcome to “Uptober”
Key Takeaways
- A FUD-free week combined with shifting regulatory sentiment catalyzes a 33% weekly increase for $BTC and a 28% increase for $ETH. Bitcoin’s market cap returns to $1 trillion and trades above the 200-day moving average.
- Data points to a spot-driven market for Bitcoin as just over $100 million in short positions were liquidated on Wednesday’s move and leverage remains relatively subdued despite the bullish price action.
- $BTC transfer volume data demonstrating a higher percentage of transactions above $10 million in aggregate value suggests increased participation from institutional players.
- Bitcoin dominance appears to be gaining steam as the leading cryptoasset diverges from the altcoin market. This potentially indicates the start of wider rotation out of altcoins and into Bitcoin.
- On-chain supply dynamics may finally be bearing fruit as the current illiquid supply levels may have led to outsized impact from today’s spot demand.
- Bottom Line: Bitcoin and Ethereum’s performance in the face of a seemingly murky macro landscape is a positive sign for investors. We continue to view the remainder of Q4 as bullish for $BTC and $ETH and will continue to approach any near-term pullbacks as opportunities to add to our positions.
What a difference a week makes
This time la...Reports you may have missed
CORE STRATEGY: REMAINING TACTICALLY CAUTIOUS, TGA RUNDOWN + EARLY JAN FLOWS COULD PRODUCE NEEDED SPARK In our view, this cycle is far from over. However, until bonds find a bottom and the USD peaks, it’s prudent for more tactically-minded crypto investors to remain nimble and ready to capitalize on opportunities once a trend reversal is confirmed. While this could happen as early as next week due to early-January inflows, additional...
CORE STRATEGY: FOCUS ON MAJORS, KEEP HEAD ON SWIVEL UNTIL BONDS/DXY RELENT We think it's right to expect a bounce into year-end, potentially starting tomorrow if PCE data comes in soft. In our view, this cycle is far from over, but until bonds find a bottom and the USD tops, it’s likely best for the more tactical investor to stay nimble and prepared for opportunities upon confirmation of this trend...
CORE STRATEGY Our base case assumes that the macro environment will remain accommodative for crypto through year-end. However, in light of recent market action, we remain alert for signs of a local top (not a cycle top). That said, it is difficult to justify a risk-averse stance at this stage and think it is right to lean into this altcoin rally. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat STRONG DOLLAR +...
Today's employment numbers broadly met investor expectations, placating a nervous market. Risk assets rallied, aligning with our view that yesterday's de-risking would not persist through today. Yields continued their downward trajectory, and Fed funds futures also declined, reflecting the market's adherence to the Fed's dovish messaging. Yields Falling: Source: TradingView Fed Funds Futures Showing More Cuts: Source: TradingView Oil prices nearing YTD lows likely assisted in alleviating near-term concerns about...
