Mini Alt Season
Final Thoughts on Ripple Decision
In June, we identified the Ripple case as a possible catalyst for altcoins, as indications of progress for the defendants surfaced. Just last week, Ripple achieved a partial victory, likely benefiting altcoins targeted by the SEC and potentially prompting a shift towards a more legislative approach rather than an enforcement-focused one.
The court ruled that Ripple Labs' transactions of $XRP to institutional investors constituted securities transactions. However, programmatic sales on exchanges, distributions to employees, and other secondary sales from Ripple Labs executives were not considered securities transactions. The classification depended on transaction nature and participants' awareness.
Importantly, the decision clarifies that tokens with characteristics mirroring XRP are not automatically classified as securities. Instead, it emphasizes the need to consider the specific circumstances surrounding the sale and distribution of the token in question.
Reports you may have missed
CORE STRATEGY: FOCUS ON MAJORS, KEEP HEAD ON SWIVEL UNTIL BONDS/DXY RELENT We think it's right to expect a bounce into year-end, potentially starting tomorrow if PCE data comes in soft. In our view, this cycle is far from over, but until bonds find a bottom and the USD tops, it’s likely best for the more tactical investor to stay nimble and prepared for opportunities upon confirmation of this trend...
CORE STRATEGY Our base case assumes that the macro environment will remain accommodative for crypto through year-end. However, in light of recent market action, we remain alert for signs of a local top (not a cycle top). That said, it is difficult to justify a risk-averse stance at this stage and think it is right to lean into this altcoin rally. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat STRONG DOLLAR +...
Today's employment numbers broadly met investor expectations, placating a nervous market. Risk assets rallied, aligning with our view that yesterday's de-risking would not persist through today. Yields continued their downward trajectory, and Fed funds futures also declined, reflecting the market's adherence to the Fed's dovish messaging. Yields Falling: Source: TradingView Fed Funds Futures Showing More Cuts: Source: TradingView Oil prices nearing YTD lows likely assisted in alleviating near-term concerns about...
INDICATIONS OF FROTH Given the violent nature of the past month’s rally, we have been vigilant for signs of a local top. It would be disingenuous to claim that some qualitative "top signals" are not flashing right now. XRP—which we noted as a possible election trade back in October—with only 1–2k daily active addresses (vs ETH's over 400k, source: Artemis), is ripping toward new highs while influencers take to TikTok...
