The Tide Pulling Out
The Bloodbath
The bloodbath that has persisted for the better part of the past seven months continued this weekend, with the market shedding an additional $200 billion in total market cap, falling below the $1 trillion mark for the first time since late 2020. Yesterday was the single biggest decline for bitcoin (-16%) since March 2020. At the time of writing (early morning hours of June 14th), there have been a total of $1.2 billion in liquidations of leveraged positions in the futures market.
We are witnessing a combination of macro forces and over-leveraged positions in the market to result in the forced selling of BTC and ETH.
First, a couple of notes on the macro landscape.
Rates
On Monday, we saw the yield curve invert briefly, for the second time this year, as the 10Y-2Y went negative.
Reports you may have missed
CORE STRATEGY: FOCUS ON MAJORS, KEEP HEAD ON SWIVEL UNTIL BONDS/DXY RELENT We think it's right to expect a bounce into year-end, potentially starting tomorrow if PCE data comes in soft. In our view, this cycle is far from over, but until bonds find a bottom and the USD tops, it’s likely best for the more tactical investor to stay nimble and prepared for opportunities upon confirmation of this trend...
CORE STRATEGY Our base case assumes that the macro environment will remain accommodative for crypto through year-end. However, in light of recent market action, we remain alert for signs of a local top (not a cycle top). That said, it is difficult to justify a risk-averse stance at this stage and think it is right to lean into this altcoin rally. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat STRONG DOLLAR +...
Today's employment numbers broadly met investor expectations, placating a nervous market. Risk assets rallied, aligning with our view that yesterday's de-risking would not persist through today. Yields continued their downward trajectory, and Fed funds futures also declined, reflecting the market's adherence to the Fed's dovish messaging. Yields Falling: Source: TradingView Fed Funds Futures Showing More Cuts: Source: TradingView Oil prices nearing YTD lows likely assisted in alleviating near-term concerns about...
INDICATIONS OF FROTH Given the violent nature of the past month’s rally, we have been vigilant for signs of a local top. It would be disingenuous to claim that some qualitative "top signals" are not flashing right now. XRP—which we noted as a possible election trade back in October—with only 1–2k daily active addresses (vs ETH's over 400k, source: Artemis), is ripping toward new highs while influencers take to TikTok...
