Digital Assets Weekly: September 22nd
For a full copy of this report in PDF format please click HERE.
Market Analysis
This week, Bitcoin briefly traded above $11,000 before losing ground and ending the week down 1.9% at $10,455. Bitcoin has been exhibiting greater short-term correlation with the broader markets, which could be the primary reason for Bitcoin’s weakness in recent weeks. At time of writing, Bitcoin is currently trading at ~$10,500.
Notably, Bitcoin’s decline corresponds with the decline in the equities market. Despite recent weakness, Bitcoin remains the best performing asset class on a year-to-date basis by a wide margin.
The crypto majors continue to show correlation, and all of them declined this week. Amongst all the major crypto assets, Bitcoin’s decline was the most muted (-1.9%), whereas Litecoin had the largest decline (-11.4%).
Altcoins are often viewed as a leverage play on Bitcoin, magnifying the direction Bitcoin moves in. Continuing this week, all the FS Crypto FX indexes were negative with the FS 40 performing the worst (-14.4%) and the FS 10 performing the best (-4.3%).
Despite Ethereum’s negative performance this week, it is still up 166% YTD and is firmly the best performing crypto major. All the FS Crypto FX indexes are up more than 50% YTD.
...Reports you may have missed
How the US Could Adopt BTC as a Strategic Reserve Asset, Look for ETH to Bottom Within Next Few Trading Days
POLITICAL PREDICTION MARKETS PROVIDE PARTIAL RATIONALE FOR PAUSE IN RALLY We see the recent pause in the July rally driven by two factors:General Degrossing Across All Asset Markets: The past couple of days have seen degrossing across all asset markets, including the crypto markets. This is less crypto-specific and more of a function of the market rotating out of strategies (like the long MAG 7) that worked in the first...
BTC AS A POSSIBLE STRATEGIC RESERVE Last week, we discussed the rising political tailwinds affecting crypto. Despite events earlier in the year that might have suggested a changed stance from the Democratic Party, the political divide over the issue has grown stronger. The GOP has become the party that is undoubtedly more favorable to the industry. The attempted assassination of former President Trump, juxtaposed against a Democratic Party seemingly in...
Gox Wallet Movements Still Present a Risk, But Macro & Politics Keeps Us Allocated Here (Core Strategy Rebalance)
DISCUSSING THE SUPPLY CONCERNS On balance, macro conditions have moved in our favor thus far in early Q3. We have received soft jobs numbers and softer ISM reports, and cooler inflation figures, which have sent rates and the DXY lower. Unfortunately, the mere reveal of imminent sales from the German BKA and the solidification of the Mt. Gox disbursement timeline were not enough to put a bottom in for bitcoin....
LESSONS FROM OPEC We have witnessed a significant market panic partially related to formerly locked BTC hitting the order books. The major sources of supply include:Mt. Gox – 141,686 BTCUS Government – 8,100 BTCGerman Government – 50,000 BTC At current prices, this would equate to over $12 billion in supply. This threat, combined with an inhospitable macro backdrop (rising DXY, higher rate expectations, hawkish Fed), has brought BTC down to...