Digital Assets Weekly: June 30th
Market Analysis
After Bitcoin’s price briefly dipped below $9,000 on Saturday, gains on Sunday pushed it back above $9,000 into the lower band of its $9,000-$10,000 trading range that has persisted since the halvening. This ended its longest streak of daily losses (5 days) in over half a year. Prices last declined for 5 consecutive days in early December 2019.
Bitcoin remains firmly ahead of gold as the best performing asset class on a YTD basis.
All major crypto assets were down 5% to 7% on the week.
FS Crypto FX 250 was the best performing index last week, finishing the week down 2.2% and outperforming Bitcoin by 3%.
The table below shows the returns of the largest assets and the FS Size Indexes over the year.
Fundamental Valuations
Bitcoin’s P/CMR valuation stood at 9.1x as of 6/29 vs 9.6x as of last week. This value remains slightly below the levels from Mar-19 through present.
Bitcoin’s market cap to realized value (MV/RV) multiple was 1.6x as of 6/29 vs 1.7x last week.
The comp table for major crypto asset prices and fundamental valuations is shown below.
Valuation Methodology
The P/CMR ratio is a fundamental valuation method I invented in December 2017 that has historically been a strong predict...Articles Read 3/3
🎁 Unlock 2 extra articles by joining our Community!
You’ve reached your limit of 3 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 2 more articles.
Already have an account? Sign In eb1b1b-0c43a0-177239-b3014d-0d9d3c
Already have an account? Sign In eb1b1b-0c43a0-177239-b3014d-0d9d3c
Reports you haven't read
ETHTFS COMING TO A BROKERAGE ACCOUNT NEAR YOU Thursday marked a broad-based rebound in equities and crypto, with a modest bounce in the bond market tagging along. This crypto rally received an extra push from some noteworthy developments. Our flash insight on Thursday morning highlighted Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas' commentary, suggesting a high likelihood that the SEC would greenlight ETH futures ETFs this week due to the imminent government shutdown, which...
RATES SURGE ON HIGHER FOR LONGER As expected, Fed Chair Powell took to the podium yesterday and kept interest rates unchanged. Concurrently, he unveiled the Fed’s new dot plot, which forecasts one more rate hike for this year but two fewer cuts for the next year. This was perceived as more hawkish than anticipated by both traditional and crypto markets. The dot plot and Powell's rhetoric collectively signal a 'higher...
TACTICAL CAUTION Throughout this year, we've been navigating a complex interplay between overarching macro influences and crypto-specific events. Milestones such as BlackRock's ETF application, Ripple's legal win over the SEC, and Grayscale's similar success have been promising, yet they've occurred amidst a peak in global liquidity. This timing has effectively curtailed any long-lasting bullish momentum in the crypto markets. While we've been vocal proponents of maintaining risk exposure, the convergence...
THE US DOLLAR WRECKING BALL CONTINUES Last week, our near-term outlook remained uncertain, though we leaned toward the possibility that a positive catalyst, such as a victory for Grayscale, could coincide with easing liquidity conditions. This would mark a significant departure from the tightening conditions—indicated by the DXY—that followed the last two crypto-specific catalysts this year. The likelihood of interest rates reaching a peak, the dollar beginning to decline, and...