Crypto Weekly (Sept. 25th, 2019)
Weekly recap...
- The crypto market crashed and no one really knows why
- BTC SegWit adoption jumped to >50% = network throughput improving
- With BTC below $9.3k support level, the next key support is now $7.5-8k
Center Story
1. The Four Horseman visited crypto
The Four Horseman of a crypto flash crash seen passing through
This was a rough start to the week for crypto brought on by a confluence of "risk off" events, but it's hard to say what exactly sparked the crash.
Though, our Bitcoin Misery Index had been showing an overbought market and furthermore, our own Tom Lee has discussed the need for a a clear macro trend (S&P 500 breakout) before BTC performance improves.
These are at least four factors that we think contributed to the flash crash and destruction of the bull market that started in April (or least added fuel to the selling fire)...
1) The Bakkt launch, though a truly positive fundamental development for the space (first physically settled BTC futures contracts = improved liquidity and access to ), failed to bring a boost to the price that some may had been hoping for. This was an incorrect assumption based on the belief that institutions were simply waiting for a compliant product.
2) BitMEX marg...Articles Read 3/3
🎁 Unlock 2 extra articles by joining our Community!
You’ve reached your limit of 3 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 2 more articles.
Already have an account? Sign In bfb7c3-7eeeb8-077432-43b25c-dc5c51
Already have an account? Sign In bfb7c3-7eeeb8-077432-43b25c-dc5c51
Reports you haven't read
RATES SURGE ON HIGHER FOR LONGER As expected, Fed Chair Powell took to the podium yesterday and kept interest rates unchanged. Concurrently, he unveiled the Fed’s new dot plot, which forecasts one more rate hike for this year but two fewer cuts for the next year. This was perceived as more hawkish than anticipated by both traditional and crypto markets. The dot plot and Powell's rhetoric collectively signal a 'higher...
TACTICAL CAUTION Throughout this year, we've been navigating a complex interplay between overarching macro influences and crypto-specific events. Milestones such as BlackRock's ETF application, Ripple's legal win over the SEC, and Grayscale's similar success have been promising, yet they've occurred amidst a peak in global liquidity. This timing has effectively curtailed any long-lasting bullish momentum in the crypto markets. While we've been vocal proponents of maintaining risk exposure, the convergence...
THE US DOLLAR WRECKING BALL CONTINUES Last week, our near-term outlook remained uncertain, though we leaned toward the possibility that a positive catalyst, such as a victory for Grayscale, could coincide with easing liquidity conditions. This would mark a significant departure from the tightening conditions—indicated by the DXY—that followed the last two crypto-specific catalysts this year. The likelihood of interest rates reaching a peak, the dollar beginning to decline, and...
GRAYSCALE VICTORY As recently discussed, we’ve been awaiting either short-term relief in liquidity conditions—indicated by falling interest rates, a declining DXY, and increasing central bank liquidity—or the realization of crypto-specific catalysts for better price action. This week, we received encouraging news on both fronts. The courts have ruled that the SEC acted in an arbitrary and capricious manner when denying the spot Bitcoin ETF. _Source: Court Decision in Grayscale v...
