BTC consolidating at resistance but ADA breaks out, ETH likely to follow
Over the past week BTC broke below near-term support levels at its 15-dma and then a key level 9.1K coinciding with its March-May uptrend, only to bounce back over the past three days. In fact, while the very short-term volatility violated near-term support raising trading concerns BTC was potentially into a corrective phase, the rebound this week was from a secondary uptrend line joining the late March and April lows.
The bottom line is that 8.6K is a new tactical line in the sand for BTC given higher lows remain in place for BTC. So, for now, BTC’s consolidation continues under the important, widely watched 10-10.5K resistance band coinciding with longer-term downtrend joining the 2018-2019 and Q1 highs.
Although BTC has yet to confirm its next major direction move by moving through the 8.6 and 10.5K technical thresholds, there are other encouraging technical developments underway notably:
FS CryptoFX Advance-Decline for the FX10 large-cap and FX40 mid-cap indices have completed bottoming patterns over the past few months reversing the 2H 2019 downtrend followed by a series of higher highs. Unless a downside move below the Q1 high develops, and more importantly below the Q1 lows, we judge the current advance-decline technical structure to be bullish. Gran...Reports you may have missed
BITCOIN (BTC) “CRYPTO-WINTER” LOOKS TO BE OVER. A BULLISH 2024 LOOKS LIKELY TECHNICALLY FOLLOWING A 1Q CONSOLIDATION. Bitcoin looks to be giving off strong signals that the crypto-winter that has kept most coins in bear markets over the last couple years has finally run its course. The act of having taken the lead ahead of many cryptocurrencies in finally surpassing the 50% retracement area of its entire decline from 2021...
Tuesday produced nearly a textbook breakout which not only exceeded late June and early July highs in ^SPX -0.08% , but also successfully exceeded 3-4 month downtrends for ^SPX -0.08% and DJIA 0.16% . Seven of the 11 S&P Select SPDR ETF’s were higher by more than 3%, and volume was nearly 10/1 bullish on NYSE and NASDAQ, producing a “90% Up day” in volume. Hourly charts show this breakout above the two former peaks...
The SPX showed just minor downside follow-through after Tuesday’s reversal but might not immediately weaken down to prior lows ahead of the US July 4th holiday. As mentioned, prices reversed on cue Tuesday due to a combination of Elliott-wave analysis with Gann analysis which provided price and time targets based on the prior June 16th bottom. I expect that the next couple days might show prices attempting to stabilize and...
Cryptocurrency rally looks to have temporarily stalled out after a sharp three-week rally. Ethereum has stalled out in its relative performance vs Bitcoin, and for now, Bitcoin is an outperformer over Ethereum and should be favored. Weekly momentum remains negative and Cycle composites start to turn lower in early March into April/May, so given low retail interest and not many inflows, this could limit the larger rally continuing to all-time highs...
