BTC challenges 9-9.5K resistance making new 7-month highs vs S&P 500
A pause for most Alts but BTC remains resilient, challenging 9.5K heading into its halving - Most cryptocurrencies paused or pulled back over the past week after rallying into resistance bands with short-term momentum peaking at overbought levels. BTC also paused but has been impressively more resilient notably over the past two days, challenging resistance between 9-9.5K as the widely anticipated May 12 halving draws near.
So what to do? While the debate regarding how BTC will react to its halving rages, our recommendation remains straight forward based on BTC’s current technical setup.
BTC remains above its tactical uptrend at its 15-dma - From a tactical standpoint, BTC is overbought short-term after punching above its widely watched 200-dma last week. However, BTC also remains in an uptrend defined by its rising 15-dma at 8.4K. Until that moving average is broken, we recommend tactical investors and traders remain long. A move above 9.5K would likely see a move to next resistance at 10.5K.
Reports you may have missed
BITCOIN (BTC) “CRYPTO-WINTER” LOOKS TO BE OVER. A BULLISH 2024 LOOKS LIKELY TECHNICALLY FOLLOWING A 1Q CONSOLIDATION. Bitcoin looks to be giving off strong signals that the crypto-winter that has kept most coins in bear markets over the last couple years has finally run its course. The act of having taken the lead ahead of many cryptocurrencies in finally surpassing the 50% retracement area of its entire decline from 2021...
Tuesday produced nearly a textbook breakout which not only exceeded late June and early July highs in ^SPX -0.09% , but also successfully exceeded 3-4 month downtrends for ^SPX -0.09% and DJIA 0.39% . Seven of the 11 S&P Select SPDR ETF’s were higher by more than 3%, and volume was nearly 10/1 bullish on NYSE and NASDAQ, producing a “90% Up day” in volume. Hourly charts show this breakout above the two former peaks...
The SPX showed just minor downside follow-through after Tuesday’s reversal but might not immediately weaken down to prior lows ahead of the US July 4th holiday. As mentioned, prices reversed on cue Tuesday due to a combination of Elliott-wave analysis with Gann analysis which provided price and time targets based on the prior June 16th bottom. I expect that the next couple days might show prices attempting to stabilize and...
Cryptocurrency rally looks to have temporarily stalled out after a sharp three-week rally. Ethereum has stalled out in its relative performance vs Bitcoin, and for now, Bitcoin is an outperformer over Ethereum and should be favored. Weekly momentum remains negative and Cycle composites start to turn lower in early March into April/May, so given low retail interest and not many inflows, this could limit the larger rally continuing to all-time highs...