BTC stress tests its 2015-2020 uptrend at 7.7K. ETH tests key level at 180
Cryptocurrencies abruptly u-turned over weekend sending most back to key technical levels as global macro worries intensified. BTC is now testing important support at 7.5-7.7K that needs to hold to keep its longer-term uptrend intact, while ETH is also testing a key level at 180.
BTC – Benefit of the doubt as BTC is oversold short-term at long-term trend support.
Last week, we highlighted BTC was likely starting a short-term rebound only to promptly see BTC collapse through the weekend back to key support at its 2015-2020 uptrend and 62% retracement of the 2H 2019 rebound. Given daily and 4-hour RSI is suitably oversold, we recommend giving BTC the benefit of the doubt it will hold current levels. While the technical backdrop should support a bounce, BTC’s next meaningful directional shift will likely be dependent on whether the broader macro backdrop for traditional assets can stabilize or not. Our expectation is that it will. However, a break below 7.5K would jeopardize the longer-term bullish trend for BTC with next critical support at the prior lows in Q4 2019 near 6.5K, followed by the rising 200-week sma at 5.5K.
Reports you may have missed
BITCOIN (BTC) “CRYPTO-WINTER” LOOKS TO BE OVER. A BULLISH 2024 LOOKS LIKELY TECHNICALLY FOLLOWING A 1Q CONSOLIDATION. Bitcoin looks to be giving off strong signals that the crypto-winter that has kept most coins in bear markets over the last couple years has finally run its course. The act of having taken the lead ahead of many cryptocurrencies in finally surpassing the 50% retracement area of its entire decline from 2021...
Tuesday produced nearly a textbook breakout which not only exceeded late June and early July highs in ^SPX -0.09% , but also successfully exceeded 3-4 month downtrends for ^SPX -0.09% and DJIA 0.39% . Seven of the 11 S&P Select SPDR ETF’s were higher by more than 3%, and volume was nearly 10/1 bullish on NYSE and NASDAQ, producing a “90% Up day” in volume. Hourly charts show this breakout above the two former peaks...
The SPX showed just minor downside follow-through after Tuesday’s reversal but might not immediately weaken down to prior lows ahead of the US July 4th holiday. As mentioned, prices reversed on cue Tuesday due to a combination of Elliott-wave analysis with Gann analysis which provided price and time targets based on the prior June 16th bottom. I expect that the next couple days might show prices attempting to stabilize and...
Cryptocurrency rally looks to have temporarily stalled out after a sharp three-week rally. Ethereum has stalled out in its relative performance vs Bitcoin, and for now, Bitcoin is an outperformer over Ethereum and should be favored. Weekly momentum remains negative and Cycle composites start to turn lower in early March into April/May, so given low retail interest and not many inflows, this could limit the larger rally continuing to all-time highs...
