Crypto Strategy
246 Results
CORE STRATEGY: FOCUS ON MAJORS, KEEP HEAD ON SWIVEL UNTIL BONDS/DXY RELENT We think it's right to expect a bounce into year-end, potentially starting tomorrow if PCE data comes in soft. In our view, this cycle is far from over, but until bonds find a bottom and the USD tops, it’s likely best for the more tactical investor to stay nimble and prepared for opportunities upon confirmation of this trend...
CORE STRATEGY Our base case assumes that the macro environment will remain accommodative for crypto through year-end. However, in light of recent market action, we remain alert for signs of a local top (not a cycle top). That said, it is difficult to justify a risk-averse stance at this stage and think it is right to lean into this altcoin rally. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat STRONG DOLLAR +...
Today's employment numbers broadly met investor expectations, placating a nervous market. Risk assets rallied, aligning with our view that yesterday's de-risking would not persist through today. Yields continued their downward trajectory, and Fed funds futures also declined, reflecting the market's adherence to the Fed's dovish messaging. Yields Falling: Source: TradingView Fed Funds Futures Showing More Cuts: Source: TradingView Oil prices nearing YTD lows likely assisted in alleviating near-term concerns about...
INDICATIONS OF FROTH Given the violent nature of the past month’s rally, we have been vigilant for signs of a local top. It would be disingenuous to claim that some qualitative "top signals" are not flashing right now. XRP—which we noted as a possible election trade back in October—with only 1–2k daily active addresses (vs ETH's over 400k, source: Artemis), is ripping toward new highs while influencers take to TikTok...
TURNING CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC There is a lot of pain in the ETHBTC chart. It peaked in December 2021 and, save for several brief rallies, has been on a downwards slope ever since. It peaked at just under 0.09 and currently trades around 0.038. Source: TradingView Fortunately, we have anchored most of our attention on BTC and SOL this cycle, as BTC has continued to lead the market in a generally...
BTC DECOUPLING FROM EQUITIES Over the past two weeks, BTC has begun to decouple from other risk assets. While the broader macro environment experienced choppy conditions from November 12th through yesterday, BTC has appeared indifferent to fluctuations in risk appetite, continuing its upward momentum and approaching the $100K milestone. A chart of BTC correlations highlights this decoupling, with sharp declines in its correlation to the QQQ, SPX, and IWM. The...
Market Lacks Convincing Signs of Market Froth, Major Demand Side Catalyst for CORE (Core Strategy Rebalance)
FROTH OR REPRICING? A heated debate is unfolding among crypto investors: have we just hit a local top, or will the breakout after eight months of consolidation continue higher through year-end? The crypto market has surged rapidly, as we anticipated, but the key question remains—can this rally sustain itself, or is it nearing exhaustion? Anecdotally, we are seeing renewed interest in crypto from casual observers. Friends and family are once...
TRUMP MAINTAINS A SLIGHT EDGE, BUT IT’S ESSENTIALLY A TOSSUP Well, it's here, folks – the moment that markets have been building up towards since January—the general election to decide the next President of the United States. As our clients know, we have been closely tracking polling and prediction market trends over the past several months, and these have served as a key input in our recommendations. Odds for both...
BTC ETFS SEE MASSIVE INFLOWS: IS CRYPTO NATIVE CAPITAL SIDELINED? BTC ETFs saw over $2.2 billion in net inflows across all spot ETFs from Monday through Wednesday of this week—the largest three-day sum of inflows since the products launched in January—bringing the five-day moving average to north of $500 million. This is certainly impressive and speaks to the explosive breakout we have seen this week. Source: Farside Investors, Fundstrat We've...
SOL OUTPERFORMANCE Last week, we highlighted the explosive activity on Solana as DEX volumes surpassed those on Ethereum, leading us to increase SOL's weighting in our Core Strategy. These elevated DEX volumes have persisted through this week, and SOL has dramatically outperformed, breaking out against ETH and gaining ground against BTC—all amid a sharp bond selloff and a rally in the DXY. Source: Artemis Source: TradingView A significant portion of...
SMALL CAP BREAKOUT A POSITIVE INDICATOR FOR BTC It is a common refrain among passive industry observers that BTC is strongly correlated with large-cap tech stocks, leading some to view BTC as a quasi-leveraged version of QQQ. However, we think this perspective is limiting. If you were to rely on QQQ as a barometer for crypto market conditions, you would experience several periods of underperformance over the course of a...
Storm-Driven Claims, Political Shifts, and Seasonality Point to Bullish Crypto Setup for Late October
MARKET INCREASES PROBABILITY OF 'NO LANDING' Over the past week, a series of stronger-than-expected economic data releases have significantly impacted market sentiment:ROBUST ISM SERVICES PMI: The ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 54.9, significantly above the forecasted 51.7.STRONG NON-FARM PAYROLLS (NFP): The economy added 254,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 140,000.FOMC MINUTES INDICATE DIVERGENCE: The FOMC minutes revealed non-consensus at the September meeting regarding whether to cut rates by...