2026 Crypto Outlook: Near-Term Headwinds, Second-Half Upside

Dec 17, 2025 • 2 Min Read

Author

Thank you to everyone who joined my annual outlook call today. Below are several high-level takeaways, along with the latest Core Strategy and Crypto Equity portfolios.

Click here to download the presentation deck.

The Headwinds

Near-Term Risks Mounting: Q1 risks to crypto include a potential government shutdown, renewed trade policy volatility, waning confidence in AI capex returns, and uncertainty around the Fed Chair transition, all of which could pressure markets currently characterized by tight HY spreads and low cross-asset volatility. Mixed Near-Term Flows: BTC sits in val...

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2026 Crypto Outlook: Near-Term Headwinds, Second-Half Upside

The Headwinds

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