We Think that More Upside is Likely
Core Strategy
Crypto continues to benefit from supportive conditions, and the near-term setup favors continuation. A new golden cross has been triggered for BTC, with post-2020 signals showing an 83% 90-day win rate and a 19% median return. FTX creditor repayments, totaling $5 billion, are underway and may recycle capital back into crypto markets, boosting risk appetite. Flows remain strong. ETF demand is steady, the Coinbase premium persists, CME basis is climbing (with ETH now above BTC), and stablecoin supply has grown by $6 billion over the past week. At the macro level, renewed concerns about fiscal deficits and bond market stress reinforce the longer-term thesis for BTC as a hedge.
Note: Our equities baskets are not risk-managed/rebalanced in the same way that our Core Strategy is.
Fiscal Deficits to Persist
After the quasi-trade deal was announced between China and the US, we said that, at least for the time being, we’d be able to move past the topic of trade and shift focus to other areas. We posited that the new narrative in the crypto market would be tax and regulatory policy. While the idea of “deregulation” is a bit more nuanced and harder to quantify, tax and budget policy, and by extension, the long-term fiscal p...Unlock this article by joining our Community!
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